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Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: January 05, 2021 06:17PM
obviously very early, but both Warnock and Ossoff are ahead in several counties that Trump won. no mail-in votes counted yet.



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.”
-- François de La Rochefoucauld

Growing older is mandatory. Growing up is optional.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/05/2021 06:36PM by Ombligo.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: RgrF
Date: January 05, 2021 06:24PM
Fulton County down 125K votes from Nov - not a good sign.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: $tevie
Date: January 05, 2021 06:39PM
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: hal
Date: January 05, 2021 06:56PM
@Stevie hahahahaha!
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: sekker
Date: January 05, 2021 07:00PM
NYT has moved from 'tie' to 'leaning Democratic' for both races with about 20% of the votes in.

'What’s happening now:
1m ago
Democrats are starting to pull clearly, if slightly, ahead in our estimates, as they're outperforming our expectations across all vote methods. The only good news for the GOP is that the election day turnout is a hair higher than we expected. Republican hopes rest on the election day vote; there's still a lot of it left, and maybe they'll do better with what's left than what's counted. With the race so close, they'd have to do only a little bit better than they've done so far to fight back to a dead heat.'

[www.nytimes.com]

Looks like it's going to be a nailbiter for sure.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/05/2021 07:04PM by sekker.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: January 05, 2021 07:37PM
Steve Kornacki addicting as usual.

I wonder if he's that animated all the time.

Encouraging so far. I'm bullish on blue and a 50-50 senate.

Perdue has a better shot than Loeffler if there's a split result.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: January 05, 2021 08:03PM
Holy cow, it just tightened up in a matter of minutes
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: hal
Date: January 05, 2021 08:15PM
NYT:

Rockdale County is the largest thus far to report it’s completed vote counting. The results there: Democrats are outperforming their November numbers by about 4 percentage points.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/05/2021 08:15PM by hal.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: hal
Date: January 05, 2021 08:16PM
Also NYT:

Despite a big push from G.O.P. officials to get their supporters to vote early, Republicans seem to have been more likely to vote on election day. Democrats dominated early voting.

Thanks Don!
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: hal
Date: January 05, 2021 08:26PM
more from nyt:

The race now leans toward the Democrats. There's a long way to go and it's close, but thus far the Democrats have done better than they need, even if narrowly, across all vote methods and in all regions. The Republicans will need to do better in what's remaining than we would expect based on how well they've done so far, particularly in the Atlanta area, where virtually no election day votes have been counted.

69% reporting
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: January 05, 2021 08:28PM
Quote
hal
more from nyt:

The race now leans toward the Democrats. There's a long way to go and it's close, but thus far the Democrats have done better than they need, even if narrowly, across all vote methods and in all regions. The Republicans will need to do better in what's remaining than we would expect based on how well they've done so far, particularly in the Atlanta area, where virtually no election day votes have been counted.

69% reporting

Umm, Rs just took the lead, so ars they saying that there are urban areas still to tally?
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: sekker
Date: January 05, 2021 08:29PM
Quote
mrbigstuff
Quote
hal
more from nyt:

The race now leans toward the Democrats. There's a long way to go and it's close, but thus far the Democrats have done better than they need, even if narrowly, across all vote methods and in all regions. The Republicans will need to do better in what's remaining than we would expect based on how well they've done so far, particularly in the Atlanta area, where virtually no election day votes have been counted.

69% reporting

Umm, Rs just took the lead, so ars they saying that there are urban areas still to tally?

70% of the vote is in, and NYT is still predicting Dem wins.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: January 05, 2021 08:37PM
Oh, the mailed ballots yet to be counted, I guess.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: January 05, 2021 08:55PM
Dekalb in Atlanta is less than 40% in, which leaves close to 250,000 votes in a county going 80% Blue. While the numbers are smaller, Chatham County (Savannah) is similar.

The Dems being behind was expected at this point, but they are much closer than expected as well. The mail-in votes are going to be the difference. Expect Trump and the GOP to do everything they can to disqualify and avoid those counting or otherwise verifying those ballots.



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.”
-- François de La Rochefoucauld

Growing older is mandatory. Growing up is optional.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: NewtonMP2100
Date: January 05, 2021 09:09PM
....keeps.....Georgia....on my mind......



_____________________________________

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: steve...
Date: January 05, 2021 09:27PM
Quote
Ombligo
Expect Trump and the GOP to do everything they can to disqualify and avoid those counting or otherwise verifying those ballots.

Yep, Trump and his cronies would NOT accept a fair election and their rigged election lies will continue.




Northern California Coast
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: pdq
Date: January 05, 2021 09:30PM
May have a pretty good idea in the next hour or so; a big chunk of DeKalb county should be in by then.

It’s close, but I think it may be a rerun of the presidential election.

Watch Trump fans heads explode.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: bfd
Date: January 05, 2021 09:32PM
Just waiting on the ATL right now… come on blue votes!
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: Ted King
Date: January 05, 2021 09:34PM
If the two Democrats win, there's a good chance they will be close races and if they are fairly close, I think that there's a fair chance that the Republicans will launch a bunch of lawsuits to keep the two Democrats from being sworn in for maybe several months. Several months where Mitch will still be in charge.

Remember 2008-9 when Al Franken didn't take his senate seat until July 7, denying months of the Democrats having a supermajority in the Senate right at the beginning of Obama's first and most productive year. His Republican opponent Coleman dragged that out far longer than could reasonably be justified. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see something similar to that happening again if the two Democrats win.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/05/2021 09:36PM by Ted King.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: mattkime
Date: January 05, 2021 09:57PM
Quote
pdq
Watch Trump fans heads explode.

BUT WE WERE AHEAD AND THEN IT WAS STOLEN



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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: mattkime
Date: January 05, 2021 09:57PM
Quote
pdq
Watch Trump fans heads explode.

BUT WE WERE AHEAD AND THEN IT WAS STOLEN



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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: NewtonMP2100
Date: January 05, 2021 10:10PM
......one.....more.....time......



_____________________________________

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: hal
Date: January 05, 2021 10:11PM
We got this - go look at he numbers, what's remaining and where its from...

I just allowed myself a BIG LOUD SHOUT OF JOY as I realized that somehow, the dems nabbed the presidency and the senate and will be in the driver seat come the 21st

bye Mitch!
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: pdq
Date: January 05, 2021 10:19PM
From 538:

Quote

DeKalb County just posted about 152,000 Advanced (early) votes, and Ossoff and Warnock each netted more than 100,000 votes
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: pdq
Date: January 05, 2021 10:20PM
...and guess what?

Quote

Decision Desk HQ Projects @ReverendWarnock (D) has won the Georgia Special Senate Runoff Election

Race Called: 11:13PM EST 01.05.21

One down, one to go.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: January 05, 2021 10:20PM
Warnock just took the lead with most of ATL reporting. Ossoff still behind.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: NewtonMP2100
Date: January 05, 2021 10:23PM
........go.....D........go......



_____________________________________

I reject your reality and substitute my own!
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: rgG
Date: January 05, 2021 10:40PM
Ossoff behind by 456 votes right now. Damn. Dead heat





Roswell, GA (Atlanta suburb)
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: rjmacs
Date: January 05, 2021 10:44PM
I have hope.



rj
AKA
Vreemac, Moth of the Future
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: pdq
Date: January 05, 2021 10:45PM
Quote
rgG
Ossoff behind by 456 votes right now. Damn. Dead heat

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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: PeterB
Date: January 05, 2021 10:45PM
Quote
rgG
Ossoff behind by 456 votes right now. Damn. Dead heat

Wait. grinning smiley

NYT tracker has him at >95% chance of winning. [www.nytimes.com]
(scroll down to the win probability needle for Ossoff vs. Perdue)




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/05/2021 10:46PM by PeterB.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: sekker
Date: January 05, 2021 10:46PM
Quote
pdq
Quote
rgG
Ossoff behind by 456 votes right now. Damn. Dead heat


92000 estimated mail in votes left to count still. Ossoff looking good.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: rgG
Date: January 05, 2021 10:51PM
Quote
PeterB
Quote
rgG
Ossoff behind by 456 votes right now. Damn. Dead heat

Wait. grinning smiley

NYT tracker has him at >95% chance of winning. [www.nytimes.com]
(scroll down to the win probability needle for Ossoff vs. Perdue)

I hope it is right, but I am just saying what is being reported now.
Not all the votes are in, I know.
Fingers super crossed.
Perdue has pulled ahead by maybe 3K now, so it is bouncing around.





Roswell, GA (Atlanta suburb)
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: pdq
Date: January 05, 2021 10:52PM
That was fun.

How about another?

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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: PeterB
Date: January 05, 2021 10:55PM
Quote
rgG
Quote
PeterB
Quote
rgG
Ossoff behind by 456 votes right now. Damn. Dead heat

Wait. grinning smiley

NYT tracker has him at >95% chance of winning. [www.nytimes.com]
(scroll down to the win probability needle for Ossoff vs. Perdue)

I hope it is right, but I am just saying what is being reported now.
Not all the votes are in, I know.
Fingers super crossed.
Perdue has pulled ahead by maybe 3K now, so it is bouncing around.

True, but what's left is apparently mostly heavy Blue strongholds. (That NYT page has an amazing amount of data, like where all the remaining votes are located, how the votes have changed over time, relative returns of absentee ballots, etc. ... have a good look around!)

Edit: their page currently reads:

"We think about 93,000 votes remain. If that's right, Ossoff would need to win about 51 percent of those votes. We think he's on track to win between 57 and >95 percent. (Our best guess is 77 right now)"




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/05/2021 10:57PM by PeterB.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: rgG
Date: January 05, 2021 10:58PM
Fingers crossed for a big blue birthday present in the morning, but I am going to watch an episode of The Great British Baking Show and then go to bed.
Y'all hold the fort down for me. grinning smiley





Roswell, GA (Atlanta suburb)
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: RgrF
Date: January 05, 2021 11:04PM
Dave Wasserman the honcho at The Cook Political report has just declared both seats to Dems and gone to bed. For a long time past he has a pretty significant record of correct calls.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: January 05, 2021 11:32PM
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: RgrF
Date: January 06, 2021 01:20AM
So Mitch will no longer be the driving force in the Senate, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin will be.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: sekker
Date: January 06, 2021 06:15AM
Vox has called both too.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: sekker
Date: January 06, 2021 06:21AM
And we can thank Stacey Abrams - again.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: January 06, 2021 06:54AM
Neither republican has conceded.

Loeffler insists that the votes are in her favor (at this time, the margins look to be too great for her to request a recount) and is promising to make trouble, starting with an attempt to block the electoral college certification today.

The vastly wealthy woman who grew up in a sheltered enclave and married a billionaire and lives in a giant mansion in a gated community in a distant hillside far away from the huddled masses says that this is important because she is the only one who can protect "the American dream."

45 is calling the Georgia election "illegal and invalid."

BTW: The Republican National Committee’s annual Winter Meeting is being held between Jan 6-8 in Florida. This is where the early front-runners for the next presidential candidate are selected. They are expected to ignore all comers in favor of Drumpf. If they don't, you can thank the Dems who turned out for the Georgia election for that. The energetic democratic turnout and what is perceived as weak republican turnout is being blamed on 45's mixed-messaging. (And not at all on his racism/classism and destruction of the foundations of American society and politics.)



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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: January 06, 2021 07:01AM
It doesn't matter what they do

As the great brandi Carlisle sings

Let um laugh while they can
Let um spin, let um scatter in the wind
I have been to to the movies
I have seen how this ends

the joke's on them



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/06/2021 07:02AM by Lemon Drop.
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Re: Early Georgia results coming in
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: January 06, 2021 09:23AM
Quote
RgrF
So Mitch will no longer be the driving force in the Senate, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin will be.

Yeah, a "United front" not so much. Not like the other side.
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