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What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: C(-)ris
Date: April 26, 2021 05:17PM
COVID cases are picking up everywhere. We had a solid month where we had few cases, down from 40+ per day down to less than a handful a week. We are now skyrocketing right back towards that 40+ a day number after a month of quiet. What happened? I thought it was the vaccine doing it's thing, or with the warmer weather people were getting outside? Doesn't seem to be the case or numbers would continue to stay low.



C(-)ris
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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: April 26, 2021 05:22PM
People stopped wearing masks.



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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: Lew Zealand
Date: April 26, 2021 05:28PM
Vaccine penetration, while significant, is less than personal laziness.
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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: April 26, 2021 05:31PM
Last week I read something about the new mutant strains were spreading faster (than before) in people under 20. So the recent peak might be due to increased transmission at school sports events with kids breathing hard and not wearing masks.



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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: p8712
Date: April 26, 2021 05:35PM
Things don’t exist in the moment someone becomes bored with them.
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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: PeterB
Date: April 26, 2021 05:36PM
What they said.

No masks + poor vaccine compliance = virus fun!




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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: Robert M
Date: April 26, 2021 05:41PM
C(-)ris,

What lull? We actually had spikes around here, likely due to spring break and holidays.

Robert
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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: April 26, 2021 07:57PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Last week I read something about the new mutant strains were spreading faster (than before) in people under 20. So the recent peak might be due to increased transmission at school sports events with kids breathing hard and not wearing masks.

Could be. My sons' team sent everyone home and they had to quarantine for a while because of one positive. All the kids have been masked up for practices and games. No one else tested positive of about 35 kids. The kid who was positive probably got it from outside the school system. At this point, the schools are going to have to come up with better responses; many of these kids can't stay home any longer (mine could, I think they kind of like remote at this point).
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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: C(-)ris
Date: April 26, 2021 08:45PM
Quote
mrbigstuff
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Last week I read something about the new mutant strains were spreading faster (than before) in people under 20. So the recent peak might be due to increased transmission at school sports events with kids breathing hard and not wearing masks.

Could be. My sons' team sent everyone home and they had to quarantine for a while because of one positive. All the kids have been masked up for practices and games. No one else tested positive of about 35 kids. The kid who was positive probably got it from outside the school system. At this point, the schools are going to have to come up with better responses; many of these kids can't stay home any longer (mine could, I think they kind of like remote at this point).

You say that, but the community would be in an uproar if the school suggested discontinuing sports again due to the increased risk. If you don't quarantine then you are just going for the herd immunity approach and that hasn't worked thus far for anyone who has tried it.



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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/26/2021 08:46PM by C(-)ris.
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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: sekker
Date: April 26, 2021 11:03PM
It’s from sending kids back to school in MN.
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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: April 26, 2021 11:13PM
I wonder how parents are going to react when schools require vaccination cards to attend in person schooling.



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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: Robert M
Date: April 27, 2021 06:59AM
Filliam,

The same way they reacted here in NY when a slew of exemptions for required vaccinations were eliminated. Outrage and lawsuits. End result? The plaintiffs lost their lawsuits and the changes stood.

Robert
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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: PeterB
Date: April 27, 2021 09:44AM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
I wonder how parents are going to react when schools require vaccination cards to attend in person schooling.

If we're talking college/university, those schools have the absolute right to require vaccination as a requirement for attending. The perspective of the schools is that they are within their rights to have basic entrance requirements, so long as those requirements are not prejudicial. They already require vaccinations for other things, like meningitis, MMR, etc., so it's consistent with prior established norms.




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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: JoeH
Date: April 27, 2021 10:54AM
Quote
PeterB
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
I wonder how parents are going to react when schools require vaccination cards to attend in person schooling.

If we're talking college/university, those schools have the absolute right to require vaccination as a requirement for attending. The perspective of the schools is that they are within their rights to have basic entrance requirements, so long as those requirements are not prejudicial. They already require vaccinations for other things, like meningitis, MMR, etc., so it's consistent with prior established norms.

True, though state and other laws may limit whether they can require these vaccines while they are just under an Emergency Use Authorization. Limitations may also be different for public versus private schools.

The state university I worked for just announced last week they plan on requiring the vaccinator next Fall. That is contingent on the vaccines getting full authorization from the FDA as the state law applicable to required vaccinations would need to be used to make it a requirement. If not required, they will strongly recommend students get the vaccine before coming or shortly after arriving on campus. They do have an entire dorm plus other space reserved for quarantine housing of students without vaccinations and until they have at least 2 negative tests in the 2 weeks after arriving.

Getting back to the "lull", at the university they had about 5500 students living on campus this Spring. About 800 have tested positive since the semester began in late January, 600 by the end of February. That first month of cases mostly came from students who ignored the guidelines and got together in large groups and a number of off campus parties near campus. That included one frat that hosted two large parties the first weekend on two separate nights. The students going back to their dorms infected others, in some cases almost an entire floor eventually came down with the illness. I think the slowing down after that was partly other students found out who to avoid, and partly recognition that not following the rules had consequences. Oh and by the end of February into early March the student disciplinary committee had a chance to hear cases and a number of students found themselves removed from housing.

From what I have seen in the news and online, that experience was similar at other colleges, so multiple that across the country it would have some appearance in the statistics. Locally the students were about 5% of the population in the county, but for that period were about 60% or more of all cases reported in the county.
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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: PeterB
Date: April 27, 2021 02:18PM
JoeH, you've got a point about the EUA.

The question is, what to do in a situation like in my state, where apparently a good 2/3rds of people are still not vaccinated, and a large proportion of them apparently have no intention of EVER getting vaccinated? I would think that, in of itself, may make mandating much more difficult.




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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: AllGold
Date: April 27, 2021 03:09PM
The lull, if you had one, was caused by mitigation measures and by vaccinations.

The resurgence (or reversal of the lull) was due to several factors:

• "Covid fatigue" - people got tired of the mitigation measures and decreased compliance--or abandoned them altogether.

• A return of schools to in-person instruction.

• Winter youth sports. It's not just practices and games where spread can occur. There is always socialization associated.

• The variants. The UK b.1.1.7 variant has become the dominant strain in the U.S. It is much more contagious and is thought to affect kids much more than the original strain.

I have heard some experts say they think we were on track to get ahead of the virus until the variants became prevalent. The variants spread much faster (and among younger people) and outpaced the rate at which we can vaccinate.



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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: April 27, 2021 06:31PM
Quote
AllGold
The lull, if you had one, was caused by mitigation measures and by vaccinations.

The resurgence (or reversal of the lull) was due to several factors:

• "Covid fatigue" - people got tired of the mitigation measures and decreased compliance--or abandoned them altogether.

• A return of schools to in-person instruction.

• Winter youth sports. It's not just practices and games where spread can occur. There is always socialization associated.

Do you have citations for that because, although that was the popular wisdom, and a very popular opinion here, the positive tests at my kids schools were miniscule. Out of thousands of tests they had less than a dozen positives. And the school sports thing didn't make too much of a difference, although they saw about a half dozen more positives once that started. All in all, far fewer positives than the general population.
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Re: What caused the COVID lull from March-Now?
Posted by: AllGold
Date: April 27, 2021 09:07PM
Quote
mrbigstuff
Quote
AllGold
The lull, if you had one, was caused by mitigation measures and by vaccinations.

The resurgence (or reversal of the lull) was due to several factors:

• "Covid fatigue" - people got tired of the mitigation measures and decreased compliance--or abandoned them altogether.

• A return of schools to in-person instruction.

• Winter youth sports. It's not just practices and games where spread can occur. There is always socialization associated.

Do you have citations for that because, although that was the popular wisdom, and a very popular opinion here, the positive tests at my kids schools were miniscule. Out of thousands of tests they had less than a dozen positives. And the school sports thing didn't make too much of a difference, although they saw about a half dozen more positives once that started. All in all, far fewer positives than the general population.

What I posted is pretty Michigan-centric. That is what was driving the incredible surge in cases and hospitalizations in the state while Michigan was #1 in the U.S. in increased cases.

As for schools, the thing is, if you don't have much virus in the community then you won't have much spread in schools. But here in Michigan, outbreaks associated with schools and school sports were rampant.

But I believe the b.1.1.7 variant is now the dominant strain nation wide. It's just that it was in Michigan earlier than just about anywhere else. It was here in mid January and took until mid March before it began to explode.



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