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How Minnesota saved eighth seat in U.S. House
Posted by: Speedy
Date: May 01, 2021 11:17PM
[www.startribune.com]

A margin of 26 people helped state beat out N.Y.

XP Lee hadn't thought much about the census before attending a 2018 meeting on the nationwide population count for his job with the city of Brooklyn Park.

But he sat up when state officials said Minnesota came within 15,000 people of losing one of its eight seats in Congress a decade ago and things were looking even tighter now.

He figured there were thousands of people undercounted in his own Hmong community.

“I realized you only get this one opportunity every 10 years,” said Lee, who decided to leave his job with the city to work on statewide census efforts.

In the end, if Minnesota had counted just 26 fewer people in the 2020 Census, the state would have lost one of its seats in the U.S. House, according to population numbers released last week.

Behind that razor-thin margin was the largest mobilization effort in state history to count as many Minnesotans as possible. Alongside the state, a group of more than 300 cities, counties, advocacy groups and private sector entities put $4 million into door knocking, phone banking, advertising and social media campaigns. They held more than 1,500 events and recruited trusted messengers on reservations and in other communities of color to find people historically under counted by census enumerators.

“When you think about 26 people - every day, every ounce of that effort mattered,” said State Demographer Susan Brower, who held the first meetings on the 2020 Census effort as far back as 2015. The Legislature allocated money to the census in 2018, earlier than any other state.

Despite expectations that the state's self-response rate would be lower than in 2010, the state surpassed it and led the nation at 75%.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: How Minnesota saved eighth seat in U.S. House
Posted by: sekker
Date: May 01, 2021 11:58PM
Yes, and MN is leading the country in voting too.

Terrible when everyone in counted AND votes!
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Re: How Minnesota saved eighth seat in U.S. House
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: May 02, 2021 04:41AM
I wish MN had lost a seat and not NY or CA. MN likely would have combined 2 GOP districts, reducing a GOP seat on Congress.

The Trump admin made sure that white areas were well counted. Congrats white people!

States with growth in Latino population appear to have underperformed demographers' expectations, that's Arizona, TX and Florida at least. More info expected on that soon.
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Re: How Minnesota saved eighth seat in U.S. House
Posted by: Speedy
Date: May 02, 2021 04:54AM
Quote
Lemon Drop
I wish MN had lost a seat and not NY or CA. MN likely would have combined 2 GOP districts, reducing a GOP seat on Congress.

The Trump admin made sure that white areas were well counted. Congrats white people!

States with growth in Latino population appear to have underperformed demographers' expectations, that's Arizona, TX and Florida at least. More info expected on that soon.

The legislature is split so apportionment would go before a panel of judges. There s no telling how they would divide Minnesota except that the Twin Cities would be overwhelmingly Democratic. Likely this would have given the edge to Republicans 4-3. The district eliminated would likely have been the Sixth which is solidly Republican.

We’ll know in 10 years when we are guaranteed to lose a seat.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: How Minnesota saved eighth seat in U.S. House
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: May 02, 2021 09:35AM

The Trump admin made sure that white areas were well counted. Congrats white people!


I didn't see any evidence of this during the count. At the local level, the states allocate funds to increase the count (or not, depending on their legislatures). Now, what the administration wanted to do and what it was able to do are different things. But the commerce dept did not allocate funds more heavily to white districts that I am aware of, and I follow some lists that have a high interest in this topic.
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Re: How Minnesota saved eighth seat in U.S. House
Posted by: deckeda
Date: May 02, 2021 10:04AM
So is MN losing their voting population or did conservatives just do better this time?
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Re: How Minnesota saved eighth seat in U.S. House
Posted by: Speedy
Date: May 02, 2021 11:18AM
Quote
deckeda
So is MN losing their voting population or did conservatives just do better this time?

Conservatives just did better ousting a long-time representative of the most rural district who was chair of the House Agriculture Committee for a right-wing crazy.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: How Minnesota saved eighth seat in U.S. House
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: May 02, 2021 01:32PM
Quote
mrbigstuff

The Trump admin made sure that white areas were well counted. Congrats white people!


I didn't see any evidence of this during the count. At the local level, the states allocate funds to increase the count (or not, depending on their legislatures). Now, what the administration wanted to do and what it was able to do are different things. But the commerce dept did not allocate funds more heavily to white districts that I am aware of, and I follow some lists that have a high interest in this topic.

Texas, Arizona and Florida, all with Trump loving GOP governors and growing Hispanic populations, invested little to nothing in encouraging census completion in their states, and as a result got below average participation. What this does for them is help preserve their GOP control of the state.

We will get more info in late summer on why the results are so far off from the Bureau's own projections, but a lot of people smell rat.
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Re: How Minnesota saved eighth seat in U.S. House
Posted by: Speedy
Date: May 09, 2021 09:45PM
The rate of self-reporting by state:

[2020census.gov]

Note the difference between NY and MN.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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