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CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: hal
Date: May 11, 2021 04:09PM
When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines last month for mask wearing, it announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission was occurring outdoors. Media organizations repeated the statistic, and it quickly became a standard description of the frequency of outdoor transmission.

But the number is almost certainly misleading.

It appears to be based partly on a misclassification of some Covid transmission that actually took place in enclosed spaces (as I explain below). An even bigger issue is the extreme caution of C.D.C. officials, who picked a benchmark — 10 percent — so high that nobody could reasonably dispute it.

That benchmark “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” as Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, said. In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent, multiple epidemiologists told me. The rare outdoor transmission that has happened almost all seems to have involved crowded places or close conversation.

Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.

These recommendations would be more grounded in science if anywhere close to 10 percent of Covid transmission were occurring outdoors. But it is not.

There is not a single documented Covid infection anywhere in the world from casual outdoor interactions, such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table.


[www.nytimes.com]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/11/2021 04:12PM by hal.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: AllGold
Date: May 11, 2021 05:03PM
But if you read the article, the CDC got their information from some studies where the indoor/outdoor classification was either punted on or just a plain old mistake, depending on how you look at it.

I think the CDC should be blamed only for not thoroughly checking or verifying outside information.



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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: deckeda
Date: May 11, 2021 05:45PM
Fine by me.

Every spring and summer images are published of hundreds at beaches or in bars ... all "casual outdoor activities."

They might mean casual like just walking past someone on the street or whatever, which will let anyone who does anything outside feel secure.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: SteveO
Date: May 11, 2021 05:50PM
IMO the whole indoor/outdoor thing is a bit suspect. How can anyone really, truly say they didn't get it outdoors, unless they have positively NOT gone outdoors in the infection window? It's not like your watch goes off the moment you get infected with Covid to tell you the news.

What we do seem to know is that it is easily transferable through any kind of close contact - most often apparently in close conversation, and/or within a foot or two of someone. And apparently the greatest risk, yes, by far, seems to be indoors.

But I've been around people who wanted to "close talk" (like, face to face) to me outdoors and I've backed away and reminded them to do that as well. I know one guy who is a spit factory when he talks, eats (yeah he often does them in tandem), etc. People like that can easily infect someone indoors or out with all that saliva flying around. Do the studies account for spit factories like this? I doubt it.

No offense, but most of this is noise to me. I've had my shots, but am gonna keep being super careful, keeping what feels like a reasonably safe distance outdoors (more so depending on the company), and definitely avoiding indoor gatherings with those outside of my household. And trying to make the best of a bad situation.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: hal
Date: May 11, 2021 05:57PM
Quote
SteveO
Do the studies account for spit factories like this? I doubt it.

No offense, but most of this is noise to me.

you are completely misinterpreting this.

such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table

Walking on a path and passing by another walker is a world away from someone spiting in your face.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: Acer
Date: May 11, 2021 07:32PM
Getting a viral load from passing someone outdoors on a trail or a beach never seemed remotely likely to me.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: PeterB
Date: May 11, 2021 07:37PM
They may have exaggerated the risk of outdoor transmission, but then, they also just released this:

"Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from inhalation of virus in the air farther than six feet from an infectious source can occur

With increasing distance from the source, the role of inhalation likewise increases. Although infections through inhalation at distances greater than six feet from an infectious source are less likely than at closer distances, the phenomenon has been repeatedly documented under certain preventable circumstances.10-21 These transmission events have involved the presence of an infectious person exhaling virus indoors for an extended time (more than 15 minutes and in some cases hours) leading to virus concentrations in the air space sufficient to transmit infections to people more than 6 feet away, and in some cases to people who have passed through that space soon after the infectious person left. Per published reports, factors that increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection under these circumstances include:

Enclosed spaces with inadequate ventilation or air handling within which the concentration of exhaled respiratory fluids, especially very fine droplets and aerosol particles, can build-up in the air space.

Increased exhalation of respiratory fluids if the infectious person is engaged in physical exertion or raises their voice (e.g., exercising, shouting, singing).

Prolonged exposure to these conditions, typically more than 15 minutes."

[www.cdc.gov]




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/11/2021 07:38PM by PeterB.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: May 11, 2021 10:02PM
Almost 600,000 dead from an airborne virus.

And we are piddling about he said / they said / she said ?

More protection is better. More safety is prudent. Get vaccinated ASAP. And still take precautions. This damn virus is ugly and nasty and WAY worse than any virus I’ve ever experienced. Respiratory. Digestive. Cardiac. Neurological. It affects damn near every system of the body !
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: rgG
Date: May 11, 2021 10:20PM
Quote
Acer
Getting a viral load from passing someone outdoors on a trail or a beach never seemed remotely likely to me.

I agree.





Roswell, GA (Atlanta suburb)
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: RAMd®d
Date: May 11, 2021 11:00PM
CDC, damned if they do, damned if they don't.


I've had my shots, but am gonna keep being super careful, keeping what feels like a reasonably safe distance outdoors (more so depending on the company), and definitely avoiding indoor gatherings with those outside of my household. And trying to make the best of a bad situation.

This is how I roll, regardless of who says what about what.


I've found it very easy to maintain a reasonably high defense posture.

These don't seem to be getting much traction:



I'm tempted to find a couple for some masks.

Though not one for bumper sticker philosophy, I'm further tempted to get a decal for my car.





Your boos mean nothing to me, I've seen what you cheer for.

We are a government of laws, not men.

Everybody matters or nobody matters.

When a good man is hurt,
all who would be called good
must suffer with him.

You and I have memories longer than the road that stretches out ahead.

There is no safety for honest men except
by believing all possible evil of evil men.

We don’t do focus groups. They just ensure that you don’t offend anyone, and produce bland inoffensive products. —Sir Jonathan Ive

An armed society is a polite society.
And hope is a lousy defense.

You make me pull, I'll put you down.

I *love* SIGs. It's Glocks I hate.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: JoeH
Date: May 11, 2021 11:22PM
Don't know the Op-Ed writers background, but part of his argument is built around a statement that is suspect. The whole big bolded bit about casual transference is not something that CDC or other agencies have ever pushed except possibly at the very beginning when they were still working out how the virus was spread.

What they have been more pushing against was large groups congregating closely together. The spread of the virus may be less likely outdoors, but you get a large enough group in one place they will be surrounded by a cloud of mist and vapor from breathing. A good breeze will move that away, but it will stick around if there is no breeze.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/11/2021 11:22PM by JoeH.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: May 11, 2021 11:23PM
Quote
RAMd®d
These don't seem to be getting much traction:


Covid awareness ribbon NAM "vaccinated" pin... I had to look that up.

That's not gonna encourage people to give you breathing-room.



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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: Sam3
Date: May 12, 2021 03:59AM
This kind of exaggeration screws around with high school and college outdoor sports. For example, my daughter rows, the kids and coaches are required to wear masks while on land. So when they are getting boats ready to launch, they need to have masks on. This makes little sense, as in the springtime there is always a breeze, sometimes weak, sometimes strong. The kids are constantly moving, they are not siting around in a concentrated space for a long time. Some of the regattas have even required the kids to have masks on while they are rowing. Why? The boat is always moving, therefore the air around the kids is always moving. The reason given is that they are not 6 feet apart, the distance between seats in a rowing shell is 4.5 feet. I think it's a lame excuse. The other item is that kids are getting tested once a week. If they test positive, they are not allowed to be at practice or any races, and some schools quarantine the whole team. So why again are masks required at an outdoor event? This situation leads to absurdity, some regattas occur at a public park. Kids, coaches and most parents have masks on. The general public, walking, running, biking, sunbathing, do not. Yet they are all in the same proximity of each other.

Think about other spring sports. Softball/baseball, ok, I can see masks while in the dugout, but on the field? Tennis, lacrosse, soccer, track and field. Why are masks required?





The arts are not luxuries but assets that give way more than they cost.
--Ronald Tucker on YouTube

A mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work if it is not open.
--Frank Zappa
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: DeusxMac
Date: May 12, 2021 07:58AM
If the CDC is going to err, I want them to err on the side of caution.

I'd much rather have my/our "outdoor sports" "screwed with", than have yet another wave of infections and deaths, overwhelmed ERs and medical service providers, and the spread of more virulent COVID-19 mutations.

soapbox smiley
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: RAMd®d
Date: May 12, 2021 08:50AM
That's not gonna encourage people to give you breathing-room.


That's not why I'd wear it.

I'll make my own breathing room.

It's about being vaccinated and cautious, even while fully vaccinated, and that vaccination is good and additional caution isn't a bad thing.

Those who are staunch antis won't care, and that doesn't concern me.

I'll continue to mask-up for a long time, solely because in my own opinion, too many people thing vaccination means unmaking is ok, and I think that premature, especially when people are quibbling about restrictive guidelines and recommendations.


If the CDC is going to err, I want them to err on the side of caution.

This.





Your boos mean nothing to me, I've seen what you cheer for.

We are a government of laws, not men.

Everybody matters or nobody matters.

When a good man is hurt,
all who would be called good
must suffer with him.

You and I have memories longer than the road that stretches out ahead.

There is no safety for honest men except
by believing all possible evil of evil men.

We don’t do focus groups. They just ensure that you don’t offend anyone, and produce bland inoffensive products. —Sir Jonathan Ive

An armed society is a polite society.
And hope is a lousy defense.

You make me pull, I'll put you down.

I *love* SIGs. It's Glocks I hate.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: May 12, 2021 08:59AM
I've got my science, you can have your science!





While you're at it, hey, I just mowed - get off my science!
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: SteveO
Date: May 12, 2021 09:06AM
Quote
hal
Quote
SteveO
Do the studies account for spit factories like this? I doubt it.

No offense, but most of this is noise to me.

you are completely misinterpreting this.

such as walking past someone on a street or eating at a nearby table

Walking on a path and passing by another walker is a world away from someone spiting in your face.

Correct. I misunderstood what they meant by "casual." Thanks. I'm not worried about walking past people in the street. I do it all the time.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: May 12, 2021 09:39AM
Quote
Sam3
This kind of exaggeration screws around with high school and college outdoor sports. For example, my daughter rows, the kids and coaches are required to wear masks while on land. So when they are getting boats ready to launch, they need to have masks on. This makes little sense, as in the springtime there is always a breeze, sometimes weak, sometimes strong. The kids are constantly moving, they are not siting around in a concentrated space for a long time. Some of the regattas have even required the kids to have masks on while they are rowing. Why? The boat is always moving, therefore the air around the kids is always moving. The reason given is that they are not 6 feet apart, the distance between seats in a rowing shell is 4.5 feet. I think it's a lame excuse. The other item is that kids are getting tested once a week. If they test positive, they are not allowed to be at practice or any races, and some schools quarantine the whole team. So why again are masks required at an outdoor event? This situation leads to absurdity, some regattas occur at a public park. Kids, coaches and most parents have masks on. The general public, walking, running, biking, sunbathing, do not. Yet they are all in the same proximity of each other.

Think about other spring sports. Softball/baseball, ok, I can see masks while in the dugout, but on the field? Tennis, lacrosse, soccer, track and field. Why are masks required?

Theater. To show how "I'm doing the right thing," when, in fact, we knew early on what the right thing was to do, and that was to stay away from indoor activities where people needed to be unmasked, like eating establishments.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: May 12, 2021 10:58AM
It's simply bad communication and the smart people at the CDC should know better.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/12/2021 10:59AM by Lemon Drop.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: anonymouse1
Date: May 12, 2021 01:33PM
The CDC ain't what it used to be. They've become politicized, and paralyzed by fear of making a mistake. Michael Lewis ("Moneyball", "The Big Short") brings the receipts:

[newrepublic.com]
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: May 12, 2021 01:45PM
Around here, the past weighs heavily. When walking on the street, masks generally go up when someone is within 20 feet or so. It is beginning to change slightly however.


That's a lot of corpses.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: May 12, 2021 02:26PM
Quote
Sam3
This kind of exaggeration screws around with high school and college outdoor sports. For example, my daughter rows, the kids and coaches are required to wear masks while on land. So when they are getting boats ready to launch, they need to have masks on. ... Some of the regattas have even required the kids to have masks on while they are rowing. Why? The boat is always moving, therefore the air around the kids is always moving.

They're closely packed and breathing heavily.

Leaving your mask off in the open air is only a valid choice when you can distance yourself from other people.

Whomever told the kids that it was okay to remove their masks while rowing was wrong.



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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: Sam3
Date: May 13, 2021 06:30AM
Quote
Sarcany
Quote
Sam3
This kind of exaggeration screws around with high school and college outdoor sports. For example, my daughter rows, the kids and coaches are required to wear masks while on land. So when they are getting boats ready to launch, they need to have masks on. ... Some of the regattas have even required the kids to have masks on while they are rowing. Why? The boat is always moving, therefore the air around the kids is always moving.

They're closely packed and breathing heavily.

Leaving your mask off in the open air is only a valid choice when you can distance yourself from other people.

Whomever told the kids that it was okay to remove their masks while rowing was wrong.

This is nothing but fear mongering that is not science based.

4.5 feet apart in a boat is packed? Seriously??
With an average speed of 3.6m/sec, any viral particles would have extremely limited time to be inhaled by another person.

Oh, and did I mention that kids are being tested weekly and any positive cases are not allowed to participate in the sport until after quarantining 14 days?

The CDC's recommendationsnare overly conservative at 10%, the most likely amount is 0.1 to 1%. The 10% comes from one study in Singapore where they counted infections at a construction site. They combined into "outdoors" outdoor and indoor rates, indoors being an enclosed shell of a building that was not finished.

Quote
NY Times
The Singapore mystery

If you read the academic research that the C.D.C. has cited in defense of the 10 percent benchmark, you will notice something strange. A very large share of supposed cases of outdoor transmission have occurred in a single setting: construction sites in Singapore.

In one study, 95 of 10,926 worldwide instances of transmission are classified as outdoors; all 95 are from Singapore construction sites. In another study, four of 103 instances are classified as outdoors; again, all four are from Singapore construction sites.

This obviously doesn’t make much sense. It instead appears to be a misunderstanding that resembles the childhood game of telephone, in which a message gets garbled as it passes from one person to the next.

The Singapore data originally comes from a government database there. That database does not categorize the construction-site cases as outdoor transmission, Yap Wei Qiang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Health, told my colleague Shashank Bengali. “We didn’t classify it according to outdoors or indoors,” Yap said. “It could have been workplace transmission where it happens outdoors at the site, or it could also have happened indoors within the construction site.”

As Shashank did further reporting, he discovered reasons to think that many of the infections may have occurred indoors. At some of the individual construction sites where Covid spread — like a complex for the financial firm UBS and a skyscraper project called Project Glory — the concrete shells for the buildings were largely completed before the pandemic began. (This video of Project Glory was shot more than four months before Singapore’s first reported Covid case.)

Because Singapore is hot year-round, the workers would have sought out the shade of enclosed spaces to hold meetings and eat lunch together, Alex Au of Transient Workers Count Too, an advocacy group, told Shashank. Electricians and plumbers would have worked in particularly close contact.

[www.nytimes.com]

[reason.com]

::Edit::

Michigan updated Covid-19 guidelines, masks are no longer required for outdoor non-contact sports, and fully vaccinated teens don't have to test provided that they have no symptoms.

[www.clickondetroit.com]

Quote
ClickOnDetroit
Organized sports

Masks are still required for contact sports, but they’re no longer required for outdoor practices and games for non-contact sports, the state announced.

An example the state provided: Softball and baseball players have to wear masks in their dugouts, but not while at bat or playing first base.

In addition, new guidance for organized sports no longer requires routine COVID-19 testing for fully vaccinated participants if they aren’t experiencing symptoms.





The arts are not luxuries but assets that give way more than they cost.
--Ronald Tucker on YouTube

A mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work if it is not open.
--Frank Zappa



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/13/2021 06:34AM by Sam3.
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Re: CDC exaggerated the danger of casual outdoor transmission
Posted by: RgrF
Date: May 13, 2021 06:52AM
The idea of keeping attracted teens more than inches apart shows the fallacy of any such thinking.
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