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"The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: $tevie
Date: October 10, 2021 06:55PM
Quote

You might be surprised to learn that, according to FBI data cited by Cotton, property crime declined significantly in 2020. It continues a decades-long trend of fewer property crimes.

The same FBI data shows that, overall, crime decreased. But violent crime did go up about 5%. Is that a "crime wave"? Let's put last year's increase in violent crime in context.

[popular.info]

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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: vision63
Date: October 10, 2021 07:15PM
Property and violent crime is way up where I live and in most inner cities. Property crime is probably about the same, which is just generally high. Violent crime is out of control.

The only reason I think I ever see these kinds of stats is generally to try to justify some "other" agenda. In this case "Defund the Police." Because of course, high crime is a threat to block it. (not saying this is your agenda).

Other studies designed to show how taxing something is beneficial (like sodas).



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/10/2021 07:16PM by vision63.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: pdq
Date: October 10, 2021 07:26PM
Vision, I knew a guy who used to like to say "the plural of anecdote is not data".

I think it's fairly indisputable that violent crime went up in 2020, and property crime is down. If you have data that says otherwise, please share.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: vision63
Date: October 10, 2021 09:04PM
Quote
pdq
Vision, I knew a guy who used to like to say "the plural of anecdote is not data".

I think it's fairly indisputable that violent crime went up in 2020, and property crime is down. If you have data that says otherwise, please share.

No, because if I did, it would be a red carpet of anecdotes, information and news stories. I don't feel like doing that.

I see it all around me. But think about this, why did Erik Adams win in NYC. He wasn't supposed to. It's because of his positions on crime. The people who live there are being swarmed by criminal activity and they're sick it. The crooks feel like "hey, they're not gonna pursue us" and they're wilding out.

I wouldn't have voted for him because I choose the candidate that is clearly the brightest/smartest and most experienced. If you live in a "hood," it's not as bad as it was in the early 90's or even the early 2000's. But much higher than recent years.

The most liberal city in America is Oakland. They eliminated an Academy class of police officers to much applause. Now the've brought it back because people are becoming overwhelmed with death, mayhem and people losing their freaking minds. There are simply not enough personnel. Imagine how many retire every year.

I will personally un-elect anyone that makes my community less safe.

And these people feel like "hey, let's take money from this to give to that." Were we having a budget problem when it comes to providing quality outreach and opportunity to people that are disadvantaged prior to now? Only "now" it's possible?

San Francisco spends on average close to $300 million a year on homeless solutions. It's not a lack of MONEY that's the problem. It's a lack of WILL to actually solve it.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/10/2021 09:06PM by vision63.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: mattkime
Date: October 10, 2021 09:47PM
Quote
vision63
I will personally un-elect anyone that makes my community less safe.

And this is why we never improve on the current state. We're scared to change things because they might get worse.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: pdq
Date: October 10, 2021 09:59PM
Quote
vision63
The people who live [in NYC] are being swarmed by criminal activity and they're sick it. The crooks feel like "hey, they're not gonna pursue us" and they're wilding out.

I wouldn't have voted for him because I choose the candidate that is clearly the brightest/smartest and most experienced. If you live in a "hood," it's not as bad as it was in the early 90's or even the early 2000's. But much higher than recent years.

I’m just saying that the data doesn’t necessarily support you on that:

Overall Crime in New York City Reaches Record Low in 2020

Quote

In calendar 2020, overall crime was lower than in 2019, dropping to a new benchmark of 95,552 reported incidents – representing 681 fewer victims than last year and 11,668 fewer victims than in 2014,

As virtually everywhere else in the country, murders were up, significantly. But rapes were down. Shootings up. Grand larceny down.

I’m bothered by the murder rate. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see it decrease again after this pandemic. Folks have been stressed out.

And I’m sorry to hear you see it differently. But personally, I’ve been hearing about “kids these days” since I was a kid, and the numbers tell us crime is waaaay down since then.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: vision63
Date: October 10, 2021 10:09PM
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mattkime
Quote
vision63
I will personally un-elect anyone that makes my community less safe.

And this is why we never improve on the current state. We're scared to change things because they might get worse.

First of all, it's improved A LOT. I grew up when there were "no" cameras or phones recording the police. It's a hundred times better now. I've been victimized by the police more than most of these young guys. That's not to say, it doesn't need to improve. History didn't begin when the cell phone camera was invented.

Nobody who lives in troubled communities are interested in "experiments." If what you're trying to achieve is fundamentally "sound" then yes, try that. In fact, we're trying many things and some of it works. We've been experimenting since I was a little boy.

If we don't "Defund the Police" that means all hope is lost? These young people know that the heat is off of them. That's why they're behaving the way they behave.

Young men don't stop for stop signs, drive right through red lights, drive top speed down small streets. Why not? Who's going to stop them? Nobody.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: Speedy
Date: October 10, 2021 10:31PM
Murders are probably up because there are a lot more guns sloshing around out there than a few years ago. If you have a gun, everybody looks like a target. It’s kill or be killed.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/10/2021 10:31PM by Speedy.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: Sarcany
Date: October 10, 2021 10:40PM
Quote
vision63
Young men don't stop for stop signs, drive right through red lights, drive top speed down small streets. Why not? Who's going to stop them? Nobody.

What's "young" to you?

Most of the guys I see doing that stuff are easily pushing 80 years old. Often smoking a cigar. Usually driving a Mercedes or Lexus SUV.



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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: vision63
Date: October 10, 2021 10:50PM
Quote
Sarcany
Quote
vision63
Young men don't stop for stop signs, drive right through red lights, drive top speed down small streets. Why not? Who's going to stop them? Nobody.

What's "young" to you?

Most of the guys I see doing that stuff are easily pushing 80 years old. Often smoking a cigar. Usually driving a Mercedes or Lexus SUV.

This age. This is "everyday" all over Oakland and South Los Angeles. At night it's all you can hear. [youtu.be]

this is what people are being forced to endure.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: testcase
Date: October 11, 2021 01:38AM
I’ve NEVER heard of “Popular Information” but, if they’re legit, I’m SURE they are, at best, MISreporting data. These days, you can find “statistics” to “prove” virtually anything. In many (most?) areas of the country, crime is up, often WAY up.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: pdq
Date: October 11, 2021 08:51AM
Quote
testcase
I’ve NEVER heard of “Popular Information” but, if they’re legit, I’m SURE they are, at best, MISreporting data. These days, you can find “statistics” to “prove” virtually anything. In many (most?) areas of the country, crime is up, often WAY up.

How about the FBI? Do you trust them?

They say murders were up, especially last summer, especially gun murders:

Quote

About 77 percent of reported murders in 2020 were committed with a firearm, the highest share ever reported, up from 67 percent a decade ago.

Big cities, right? Nope - everywhere:

Quote

The change in murder was widespread — a national phenomenon and not a regional one. Murder rose over 35 percent in cities with populations over 250,000 that reported full data. It also rose over 40 percent in cities 100,000 to 250,000, and around 25 percent in cities under 25,000.

No geographic area was spared. The F.B.I. reported in March that murder was up at least 20 percent in every region of the country, including around a 30 percent increase in the Midwest.

Some things stayed the same:

Quote

One regional factor stayed consistent: Louisiana had the highest murder rate for the 32nd straight year.

However:

Quote

Even with the rise in murders and a [resultant] roughly 5 percent increase in violent crime, the new data shows that overall major crimes fell about 4 to 5 percent in 2020.

All of the above from the FBI’s annual report on crime, most recent (2020) edition. The quotes are from the NYT’s summary. If you want to dig thru it yourself, the FBI data site is here.

My take, based on this data: people were generally pissed off last year, by the long pandemic, the disruption in their lives, and the fires stoked by social media re politics and everything else. And as we are swimming in a sea of guns, anger, even transient, often leads to someone dead.

But despite that, the overall crime rates are still decreasing, violent crime is still waaay lower than it was 30 or 50 years ago, and the kids are alright.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 10/11/2021 09:00AM by pdq.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: cbelt3
Date: October 11, 2021 10:07AM
Its important to remember that the 24 hour news cycle and "If it bleeds it leads" ethos has produced a blizzard of media exposure of crime.

Fear SELLS.

Actual statistics tell the story that the fear driven blitz is diametrically opposed to reality.

Having said that...
I went to college in Cleveland. And East Cleveland nights were filled with gunfire and violent crime in the 70's when I was there. Fast forward 40+ years, and the neighborhood (what's left of it... a lot of it looks bombed out ) is still filled with gunfire and violent crime. Statistically not as bad. But still a place to stay away from.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: vision63
Date: October 11, 2021 12:30PM
Quote
cbelt3
Its important to remember that the 24 hour news cycle and "If it bleeds it leads" ethos has produced a blizzard of media exposure of crime.

Fear SELLS.

Actual statistics tell the story that the fear driven blitz is diametrically opposed to reality.

Having said that...
I went to college in Cleveland. And East Cleveland nights were filled with gunfire and violent crime in the 70's when I was there. Fast forward 40+ years, and the neighborhood (what's left of it... a lot of it looks bombed out ) is still filled with gunfire and violent crime. Statistically not as bad. But still a place to stay away from.

Fear "does" sell. However,

I don't see how for example, the 47 wounded in Chicago, with 16 dead over the past weekend (a typical weekend might I add), is something diametrically opposed to anything. Just because the media enjoys the frenzy doesn't mean this isn't happening.

They're not making up what they're reporting. They sensationalize anything, but it doesn't mean we should take the position that it's being hyped beyond reality. This is real.

I never understand why so many people won't listen to those living under these conditions. Constantly coming up with "solutions" that aren't solutions.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: October 11, 2021 12:50PM
Maybe crime numbers are down in big cities because there aren't enough police to respond and fill out a report....



In tha 360. MRF User Map
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: C(-)ris
Date: October 11, 2021 03:04PM
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Filliam H. Muffman
Maybe crime numbers are down in big cities because there aren't enough police to respond and fill out a report....

Minneapolis police don't show up for anything anymore. Sunshine and rainbows in Minneapolis as far as the statistics show.



C(-)ris
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: testcase
Date: October 12, 2021 04:14AM
“ How about the FBI? Do you trust them? ‘

The FBI gets much (most?) of its’ “data” from LOCAL sources (like LOCAL Police / Sheriff’s Departments). Just about ALL of these “sources” are under a GREAT deal of pressure from their “overlords” to show that crime is down under the current administration’s policies. A LOT of chicanery going on in the reporting. My former agency routinely took a FELONY and mis-reported it it as multiple Misdemeanors (a FELONY burglary would be entered as a Criminal Trespass and a Misdemeanor Larceny or Assault). If crime is TRULY down, then Misdemeanors as well as Felonies should be down. Often, only Felony statistics are reported so as to hide the fact that Misdemeanors are in fact soaring. Also, as mentioned, some jurisdictions are “omitted”. Other times, an officer or deputy is NOT available to document crimes so, those crimes “officially” didn’t happen.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: Speedy
Date: October 12, 2021 05:36AM
Can I send you one of my tin foil hats? No charge, just pick up postage.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: pdq
Date: October 12, 2021 08:34AM
I think he already has one, Speedy.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: $tevie
Date: October 12, 2021 11:07PM
Things are bad in Baltimore City, too, but that is not "the United States". Overall, hyping a high crime rate is part of the right wing agenda to keep everyone scared enough to vote for "law and order" Republicans.



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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: vision63
Date: October 16, 2021 08:01PM
Quote
$tevie
Things are bad in Baltimore City, too, but that is not "the United States". Overall, hyping a high crime rate is part of the right wing agenda to keep everyone scared enough to vote for "law and order" Republicans.

The don't have to hype Baltimore. It just is.

That aside, Baltimore is an OUTSTANDING vacation destination. There's so much to do there. I was blown away by the B&O Railroad Museum. The Reggie Lewis Museum was incredible. We enjoyed an art workshop there. I definitely want to go back there.

The cool penguins at the zoo. Ft McHenry, Edgar Allan Poe's house, the original Washington Monument. I want to go to the American Visionary Art Museum with art by self-taught artists. This is all before the inner harbor and the crazy food. One of the best places I've ever visited.
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Re: "The Truth about Crime in America"
Posted by: $tevie
Date: October 16, 2021 10:06PM
Oh, the American Visionary Art Museum is WONDERFUL.
Thanks for saying nice things about Baltimore. We get dissed a LOT.



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