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Supply Chain Crunch: the problem is us
Posted by: numbered
Date: November 17, 2021 10:38AM
Mattkime's post below reminded me that while there is a lot of focus on various bottlenecks, a larger part of the problem is that we are buying a lot of stuff. A lot. We reduced spending on services (personal, travel, etc) during the pandemic. And coupled with federal stimulus we had more to spend. And spend it we are doing. From Keven Drum:



Many economists have been pointing this out. Of course, people in service industries are still hurting, but we would be seeing 'issues' with this level of spending no matter what was happening in LA. And btw, the flow through LA is *higher* than usual even with the backup.
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Re: Supply Chain Crunch: the problem is us
Posted by: Racer X
Date: November 17, 2021 10:54AM
I read several articles about supply chain issues, and all but one brought up a "shortage" of truck drivers. HOWEVER, one refuted the assertion that there is a driver shortage. They pointed out it is a RETENTION shortage. In California alone, there are 6 times as many active CDL licenses in the classes needed for semis than there are actual jobs. The turnover rate is 90% in a year. They get treated like @#$%& for the most part, especially with @#$%& pay, and draconian conditions.

The trucking and port industries really need to be overhauled. Lots of people go into debt to get training and then they quit over the @#$%& conditions and now have debt and no jobs.



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The police have no duty to respond. See Castle Rock v. Gonzales, 545 U.S. 748 (2005) or Warren v. District of Columbia[1] (444 A.2d. 1, D.C. Ct. of Ap. 1981)
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Re: Supply Chain Crunch: the problem is us
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: November 17, 2021 11:46AM
It used to be that if you just got a commercial truck license, you could expect to be away from home 12 days straight on a regular basis. Retention rates have upset this a little with a much higher chance of getting job that lets you get home daily or every other day. I don't know about the pay but I doubt that it's much above minimum wage unless you own your own rig.

I think the current problem is that secondary distribution got completely messed up with so many people staying home. Farm to restaurant supply, and warehouse to retail store came to a halt. The big online retailers direct to home (bez-azon, etc.) took over. The little guys got elbowed out and the companies left aren't paying enough yet to draw people away from other minimum wage jobs. This is what will be causing inflation. Growing new supply chain routes and reviving some older traditional routes that disappeared for 18 months.



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Re: Supply Chain Crunch: the problem is us
Posted by: Speedy
Date: November 17, 2021 09:34PM
“I don't know about the pay but I doubt that it's much above minimum wage unless you own your own rig.”

Speaking from experience, if you own your own rig, it’s less money than being a hired driver.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Supply Chain Crunch: the problem is us
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: November 18, 2021 01:05PM
Getting hired by a big company with good benefits is a goal for lots of people, but that is only a small percentage of the current market.

I stumbled across this a few minutes ago. A story from 2016 about what happened to trucking.
https: //www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/05/truck-stop/481926


A more recent book about it.
Arriving Today, by Christopher Mims
[mobile.twitter.com]




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Re: Supply Chain Crunch: the problem is us
Posted by: TheCaber
Date: November 21, 2021 01:14PM
Re: Jim Ferguson above.
It is not a failure to plan; it is a 'scorched earth' plan for profits above all else. (looking at you, Harvard Business School, Wharton, Sloan, et al.)



=TC
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