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A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: freeradical
Date: November 26, 2021 11:13PM
Bottom line: We don't have one, nor does any other country.

Quote

We know how this ends: The coronavirus becomes endemic, and we live with it forever. But what we don’t know—and what the U.S. seems to have no coherent plan for—is how we are supposed to get there. We’ve avoided the hard questions whose answers will determine what life looks like in the next weeks, months, and years: How do we manage the transition to endemicity? When are restrictions lifted? And what long-term measures do we keep, if any, when we reach endemicity?

The answers were simpler when we thought we could vaccinate our way to herd immunity. But vaccinations in the U.S. have plateaued. The Delta variant and waning immunity against transmission mean herd immunity may well be impossible even if every single American gets a shot. So when COVID-related restrictions came back with the Delta wave, we no longer had an obvious off-ramp to return to normal—are we still trying to get a certain percentage of people vaccinated? Or are we waiting until all kids are eligible? Or for hospitalizations to fall and stay steady? The path ahead is not just unclear; it’s nonexistent. We are meandering around the woods because we don’t know where to go.

What is clear, however, is that case numbers, the metric that has guided much of our pandemic thinking and still underlies CDC’s indoor-masking recommendation for vaccinated people, are becoming less and less useful. Even when we reach endemicity—when nearly everyone has baseline immunity from either infection or vaccination—the U.S. could be facing tens of millions of infections from the coronavirus every year, thanks to waning immunity and viral evolution. (For context, the flu, which is also endemic, sickens roughly 10 to 40 million Americans a year.) But with vaccines available, not every case of COVID-19 is created equal. Breakthrough cases are largely mild; 10,000 of them will cause only a fraction of the hospitalizations and deaths of 10,000 COVID cases in the unvaccinated. The more highly vaccinated a community is, the less tethered case numbers are to the reality of the virus’s impact.

So if not cases, then what? “We need to come to some sort of agreement as to what it is we're trying to prevent,” says Céline Gounder, an infectious-disease expert at New York University. “Are we trying to prevent hospitalization? Are we trying to prevent death? Are we trying to prevent transmission?” Different goals would require prioritizing different strategies. The booster-shot rollout has been roiled with confusion for this precise reason: The goal kept shifting. First, the Biden administration floated boosters for everyone to combat breakthroughs, then a CDC advisory panel restricted them to the elderly and immunocompromised most at risk for hospitalizations, then the CDC director overruled the panel to include people with jobs that put them at risk of infection.

On the ground, the U.S. is now running an uncontrolled experiment with every strategy all at once. COVID-19 policies differ wildly by state, county, university, workplace, and school district. And because of polarization, they have also settled into the most illogical pattern possible: The least vaccinated communities have some of the laxest restrictions, while highly vaccinated communities—which is to say those most protected from COVID-19—tend to have some of the most aggressive measures aimed at driving down cases. “We’re sleepwalking into policy because we’re not setting goals,” says Joseph Allen, a Harvard professor of public health. We will never get the risk of COVID-19 down to absolute zero, and we need to define a level of risk we can live with.


[www.theatlantic.com]
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: Speedy
Date: November 27, 2021 06:41AM
Forced vaccinations for all the unvaccinated.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: deckeda
Date: November 27, 2021 07:43AM
The sky is falling.

The main strategy is vaccination. That not everyone wants that doesn’t mean there’s no strategy. I wasn’t under the impression adults were restricted from boosters although that’s how this article reads.

I think the author confused strategy with result.
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: November 27, 2021 07:57AM
“Pay much more attention to who and why people are at risk,” says Stefan Baral, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University. Baral says public health needs to go back to its traditional roots, where tackling disease also means reforming the living and working conditions that make people more susceptible. For example, universal paid sick leave and free voluntary isolation spaces can help minimize the impact of COVID-19, as well as many other diseases.

Hard questions lie ahead, and the answers require political will. But first, we have to stop avoiding them. We need a goal."

This is a very basic, common sense article that calls for vaccinating a larger percentage of seniors AND poverty reduction as a public health strategy. Focus on those most vulnerable to disease. This is what Dems have been clamoring for for decades, and the GOP resists.
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: pdq
Date: November 27, 2021 08:16AM
Yeah, it’s hard to have a highly successful strategy when it’s the first time through for everyone, and 30% of that “everyone” is dead-set against doing anything you recommend.

RollingEyesSmiley5
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: Acer
Date: November 27, 2021 09:42AM
To a marked degree, the strategy has worked. We managed to limit our loses through masking and isolation until a vaccine that could significantly reduce the risk was widely available. It's not a 100% win at all, with 700,000 Americans dead and millions worldwide. We could have done better if Certain People Would F***ing Listen. But the glass is at least half full, wouldn't you say?
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: November 27, 2021 09:46AM
Quote
Acer
To a marked degree, the strategy has worked. We managed to limit our loses through masking and isolation until a vaccine that could significantly reduce the risk was widely available. It's not a 100% win at all, with 700,000 Americans dead and millions worldwide. We could have done better if Certain People Would F***ing Listen. But the glass is at least half full, wouldn't you s

ay?

Yes. But we are nearly 2 years on and still not close to an endemic stage. That's the problem the article addresses. We can't figure out how to get there from here.
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: mattkime
Date: November 27, 2021 09:49AM
You could say something similar about your patchwork healthcare system.

Things are more open than they were a year ago.

Just because we don't have a central plan doesn't mean we won't find an off ramp.

Yes, COVID will be endemic, but at much lower rates of hospitalization and death than we're currently seeing.

Having this conversation right now doesn't make a lot of sense as numbers shoot up.



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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: November 27, 2021 10:04AM
Quote
mattkime
...

Having this conversation right now doesn't make a lot of sense as numbers shoot up.

That reminds me of folks who say "now is not the time to talk about gun control" after every mass shooting. We need to be working on long term solutions and implementing them now, even while the pandemic is still with us. Otherwise we never get to the endemic stage. And by "we" I mean the whole world.
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: Rolando
Date: November 27, 2021 10:06AM
Quote
Lemon Drop
Yes. But we are nearly 2 years on and still not close to an endemic stage. That's the problem the article addresses. We can't figure out how to get there from here.

The only way there is when those human speed bumps eliminate themselves, unfortunately for those they take with them.



San Antonio, TX (in the old city)


"All that is required for evil to prevail is for good men to do nothing." - Edmund Burke
“Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented." - Eli Weisel

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." - Theodore Roosevelt (1918)

"I don’t want to see religious bigotry in any form. It would disturb me if there was a wedding between the religious fundamentalists and the political right. The hard right has no interest in religion except to manipulate it." - Billy Graham 1981

"Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise" - Barry Goldwater
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: chopper
Date: November 27, 2021 10:11AM
I had COVID and I'm not getting vaccinated and someone wants to compare antibodies I'll be outside in the parking lot.

I've been saying this for years: you will never make an an American happier than the day you give them a whistle and the ability to tell people what to do. Never.
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: Lux Interior
Date: November 27, 2021 10:23AM
Quote
chopper
I've been saying this for years: you will never make an an American happier than the day you give them a whistle and the ability to tell people what to do. Never.


So you don't do anything required by law?

You must be quite the "rebel."
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: mattkime
Date: November 27, 2021 10:55AM
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
mattkime
...

Having this conversation right now doesn't make a lot of sense as numbers shoot up.

That reminds me of folks who say "now is not the time to talk about gun control" after every mass shooting. We need to be working on long term solutions and implementing them now, even while the pandemic is still with us. Otherwise we never get to the endemic stage. And by "we" I mean the whole world.

What do we need to do differently? Perhaps get more vaccinations to the rest of the world. What else? Build COVID hospital wings?



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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: November 27, 2021 12:04PM
Quote
mattkime
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
mattkime
...

Having this conversation right now doesn't make a lot of sense as numbers shoot up.

That reminds me of folks who say "now is not the time to talk about gun control" after every mass shooting. We need to be working on long term solutions and implementing them now, even while the pandemic is still with us. Otherwise we never get to the endemic stage. And by "we" I mean the whole world.

What do we need to do differently? Perhaps get more vaccinations to the rest of the world. What

else? Build COVID hospital wings?

As mentioned above, yes get more of the globe vaccinated, increase the vaxx rate for folks over 50 in the US, and address poverty related conditions that made a sector of our population very vulnerable to COVID. Because this won't be the last pandemic.
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: DeusxMac
Date: November 27, 2021 02:47PM
Quote
chopper
I had COVID and I'm not getting vaccinated and someone wants to compare antibodies I'll be outside in the parking lot.

[youtu.be]
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: sekker
Date: November 27, 2021 04:29PM
Quote
chopper
I had COVID and I'm not getting vaccinated and someone wants to compare antibodies I'll be outside in the parking lot.

I've been saying this for years: you will never make an an American happier than the day you give them a whistle and the ability to tell people what to do. Never.

I have a good friend who now has had COVID twice, the second time after ALSO being vaccinated. And not immunocompromised.

As for the latter comment, I literally have no wish to tell anyone specifically what to do. Except - that they live in a society, and they should take full personal responsibility.

I chart hard on the Libertarian scale - I think the government should be the method of last resort for most things.

But what pisses me off about the New GQP is the complete lack of holding people accountable for their terrible personal choices.

'Freedom' simply doesn't mean:
1) I can do whatever I like, no matter what.
Even in a Republic, there ARE consequences, and in prior times, those would be enforced.
2) 'Government' cannot tell me what I can - or cannot - do.
This is nonsense, of course. The entire point of a Republic is that 'we' = 'government', and 'we' make rules of 'us' to follow. Trying to pretend the US 'government' is not 'we' is absurd.
3) 'Government is stupid'.
Alas, with the GQP - this is patently true. Especially since (2) speaks so much truth.
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: mattkime
Date: November 28, 2021 04:47PM
Its pretty reasonable that this is the point where we're at, all things considered. We were hoping that vaccination would be the driving force in the pandemic but its not - but I think the US is barely past 50% vaccination.

Yeah, its demoralizing. Yeah, we need to take inventory and figure out what to do next. Any yes, due to politics it likely means not much.

Everyone will be vaxxed, recovered, or dead.



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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: Racer X
Date: November 29, 2021 12:33AM
hoping is not a strategy.



********************************************
The police have no duty to respond. See Castle Rock v. Gonzales, 545 U.S. 748 (2005) or Warren v. District of Columbia[1] (444 A.2d. 1, D.C. Ct. of Ap. 1981)
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: Speedy
Date: December 01, 2021 10:34PM
Like others have said, the only silver lining is that this means fewer red hat voters.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: A nice depressing piece about our Covid "strategy"
Posted by: Speedy
Date: December 01, 2021 10:37PM
Quote
DeusxMac
Quote
chopper
I had COVID and I'm not getting vaccinated and someone wants to compare antibodies I'll be outside in the parking lot.

[youtu.be]

LOL.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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