Similar to Crimea invasion false flag operation

US official: Russia prepping pretext for Ukraine invasion
[apnews.com]

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan gives an update about the ongoing talks with Russia at a press briefing at the White House in Washington, Thursday, Jan. 13, 2022. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration has determined a Russian effort is underway to create a pretext for its troops to potentially further invade Ukraine, and Moscow has already prepositioned operatives to conduct “a false-flag operation” in eastern Ukraine, a U.S. official said Friday.

The administration believes Russia is also laying the groundwork through a social media disinformation campaign by framing Ukraine as an aggressor that has been preparing an imminent attack against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the official wasn’t authorized to discuss sensitive intelligence on the record,

U.S. intelligence officials have determined Russia has already dispatched operatives trained in urban warfare who could use explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces — blaming the acts on Ukraine — if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides he wants to move forward with an invasion, the official added.

The official did not provide details about how the intelligence community came to its determination or how much confidence they have in the assessment.

A second person familiar with the discussions between Washington and Kyiv about the crisis said the White House had not notified Ukraine before announcing Friday’s release.

Ukraine is also monitoring the alleged use of disinformation by Russia. Separately, Ukrainian media on Friday reported that authorities believed Russian special services were planning a possible false flag incident that could be seen as provoking additional conflict.

The new U.S. intelligence was unveiled after a series of talks between Russia and the U.S. and western allies this week in Europe aimed at heading off the escalating crisis made little progress.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Thursday said that the U.S. intelligence community has not made an assessment that the Russians, who have massed some 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border, have definitively decided to take a military course of action in Ukraine.

But Sullivan said Russia is laying the groundwork to invade under false pretenses should Putin decide to go that route. He said the Russians have been planning “sabotage activities and information operations” that accuse Ukraine of prepping for its own imminent attack against Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine.

He said that the move is similar to what Kremlin did in the leadup to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that had been under Ukraine’s jurisdiction since 1954.

Already in process in Kazakhstan. Soviet Vlad is taking back his territory.

The Russian economy isn't on the brink of collapse or anything like that but it is a bit wobbly and an invasion of Ukraine is bound to make it noticeably iffyer. That probably weighs on Putin's mind because a weak economy would probably be his greatest political weakness. OTOH, invading Ukraine would probably feed the flame of Russian nationalism which could mitigate the economic consequences enough for him to feel like taking a chunk of Ukraine is worth it to him.

There's also the likelihood that the Western Ukrainians would likely have a very active guerilla warfare campaign against the Russians if they take over parts of Western Ukraine. And the U.S. would likely support that insurgency. There could be a lot of body bags going home to mothers and families that over time could very well come to doubt that the invasion was worthwhile and that wouldn't be good for Putin.

He's a smart guy so I imagine he is weighing all those things, but he's running out of time to fulfill what he thinks is his manifest destiny to restore the Russian Empire to greatness so he could very well go ahead anyway.

---

e pluribus unum



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/14/2022 12:29PM by Ted King.