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Administration predicting another possible 100M corona cases by year's end
Posted by: PeterB
Date: May 06, 2022 05:34PM
[abcnews.go.com]

... the prediction is that the fall and winter might be especially bad, presumably due to a combination of new variants and people not getting vaccinated and/or boostered (and if funding isn't secured, then lack of access to vaccines and treatments). The predictions are also apparently based on the "wave" model, that we seem to be seeing outbreaks about every 3-4 months. (We're at the beginning of an apparent peak now that will occur over the summer, so then the next one after that would be sometime in the Fall/Winter 2022.)

While they can't say for sure that the prediction is accurate, experts have said it's certainly plausible.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Administration predicting another possible 100M corona cases by year's end
Posted by: mattkime
Date: May 06, 2022 10:26PM
but we decided its over



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Re: Administration predicting another possible 100M corona cases by year's end
Posted by: Mr645
Date: May 07, 2022 08:31AM
2/3 of Americans have antibodies, 100 million left to go.
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Re: Administration predicting another possible 100M corona cases by year's end
Posted by: PeterB
Date: May 07, 2022 08:41AM
Quote
mattkime
but we decided its over

But the virus didn't. eek smiley




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Administration predicting another possible 100M corona cases by year's end
Posted by: PeterB
Date: May 07, 2022 08:41AM
Quote
Mr645
2/3 of Americans have antibodies, 100 million left to go.

Having antibodies is (unfortunately) no guarantee of not getting an infection or of dying from said infection.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Administration predicting another possible 100M corona cases by year's end
Posted by: Racer X
Date: May 08, 2022 07:37PM
Even if everyone eligible and able to get vaccinated were vaccinated, we likely wouldn't reach herd immunity. What's the population percentage below 5 years? Just checked, in 2019 it was 23.9 million under 5. @ 7 percent right there.

My partner is the director of a preschool/daycare. They have to close multiple times a month for 5 days when there is a pos test result. They test everyone 2x a week. At more booger eaters than adults come up pos.

The parents fail to understand and accept that their kids, unmasked and un-vaccinated, running around, even when not at school, are GETTING SICK. NOT the schools fault. But, they don't care. They are getting pissed.



********************************************
“A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand.” Seneca the Younger

The police have no duty to respond. See Castle Rock v. Gonzales, 545 U.S. 748 (2005) or Warren v. District of Columbia[1] (444 A.2d. 1, D.C. Ct. of Ap. 1981)

Judge Lee wrote that “we cannot jettison our constitutional rights, even if the goal behind a law is laudable." 9th Circuit Court of Appeals

[www.youtube.com]



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/08/2022 07:41PM by Racer X.
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Re: Administration predicting another possible 100M corona cases by year's end
Posted by: PeterB
Date: May 08, 2022 08:35PM
Quote
Racer X
Even if everyone eligible and able to get vaccinated were vaccinated, we likely wouldn't reach herd immunity. What's the population percentage below 5 years? Just checked, in 2019 it was 23.9 million under 5. @ 7 percent right there.

My partner is the director of a preschool/daycare. They have to close multiple times a month for 5 days when there is a pos test result. They test everyone 2x a week. At more booger eaters than adults come up pos.

The parents fail to understand and accept that their kids, unmasked and un-vaccinated, running around, even when not at school, are GETTING SICK. NOT the schools fault. But, they don't care. They are getting pissed.

Interesting. What is the parents' attitude towards things like measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc., which are things for which the vaccines have been available (and required) for a long time now? If they could vaccinate for corona in the under 5's, would they actually do it? And why aren't they masking their kids?

The under-5 population is definitely a group that we want to get vaccinated eventually. The risk of MIS-C, while small, is very real: [www.hopkinsmedicine.org]




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)
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Re: Administration predicting another possible 100M corona cases by year's end
Posted by: Racer X
Date: May 08, 2022 10:58PM
Quote
PeterB
Quote
Racer X
Even if everyone eligible and able to get vaccinated were vaccinated, we likely wouldn't reach herd immunity. What's the population percentage below 5 years? Just checked, in 2019 it was 23.9 million under 5. @ 7 percent right there.

My partner is the director of a preschool/daycare. They have to close multiple times a month for 5 days when there is a pos test result. They test everyone 2x a week. At more booger eaters than adults come up pos.

The parents fail to understand and accept that their kids, unmasked and un-vaccinated, running around, even when not at school, are GETTING SICK. NOT the schools fault. But, they don't care. They are getting pissed.

Interesting. What is the parents' attitude towards things like measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc., which are things for which the vaccines have been available (and required) for a long time now? If they could vaccinate for corona in the under 5's, would they actually do it? And why aren't they masking their kids?

The under-5 population is definitely a group that we want to get vaccinated eventually. The risk of MIS-C, while small, is very real: [www.hopkinsmedicine.org]

my point is, right now, at this moment, @ 7% of the us population can't be vaccinated because of age. now add in others older than 5 who can't be for whatever reason. What are we realistically up to, 8-9%? So if only 1 in 8 adults chose not to, never going to reach herd immunity.



********************************************
“A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand.” Seneca the Younger

The police have no duty to respond. See Castle Rock v. Gonzales, 545 U.S. 748 (2005) or Warren v. District of Columbia[1] (444 A.2d. 1, D.C. Ct. of Ap. 1981)

Judge Lee wrote that “we cannot jettison our constitutional rights, even if the goal behind a law is laudable." 9th Circuit Court of Appeals

[www.youtube.com]
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Re: Administration predicting another possible 100M corona cases by year's end
Posted by: PeterB
Date: May 09, 2022 08:23AM
Quote
Racer X
Quote
PeterB
Quote
Racer X
Even if everyone eligible and able to get vaccinated were vaccinated, we likely wouldn't reach herd immunity. What's the population percentage below 5 years? Just checked, in 2019 it was 23.9 million under 5. @ 7 percent right there.

My partner is the director of a preschool/daycare. They have to close multiple times a month for 5 days when there is a pos test result. They test everyone 2x a week. At more booger eaters than adults come up pos.

The parents fail to understand and accept that their kids, unmasked and un-vaccinated, running around, even when not at school, are GETTING SICK. NOT the schools fault. But, they don't care. They are getting pissed.

Interesting. What is the parents' attitude towards things like measles, mumps, whooping cough, etc., which are things for which the vaccines have been available (and required) for a long time now? If they could vaccinate for corona in the under 5's, would they actually do it? And why aren't they masking their kids?

The under-5 population is definitely a group that we want to get vaccinated eventually. The risk of MIS-C, while small, is very real: [www.hopkinsmedicine.org]

my point is, right now, at this moment, @ 7% of the us population can't be vaccinated because of age. now add in others older than 5 who can't be for whatever reason. What are we realistically up to, 8-9%? So if only 1 in 8 adults chose not to, never going to reach herd immunity.

I understood your point, but I think the numbers have varied as to what percentage of the population we need to have vaccinated, in order to reach herd immunity. I agree that both the fact that a segment of the population can't (yet) be vaccinated and that another segment refuses to get vaccinated, is a BIG problem... especially the latter, because at least the younger population who cannot yet be vaccinated, might have a somewhat better immune system.

My own state is still hovering at only about 54% fully vaccinated... think about that: [www.nytimes.com]

Edit: of course, if we end up with another surge, it's likely to hit the unvaccinated the hardest... and if they continue to die off in the numbers that they have so far, that will further reduce the unvaccinated pool and lead us even more towards some sort of herd immunity. Of course, that's a very Malthusian view of things, but if they're stupid enough not to get vaccinated, well... Darwinian selection at work.




Freya says, 'Hello from NOLA, baby!' (Laissez bon temps rouler!)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/09/2022 08:27AM by PeterB.
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Re: Administration predicting another possible 100M corona cases by year's end
Posted by: Racer X
Date: May 09, 2022 02:56PM
It truly might end up a survival of the fittest situation, and a component of the fittest is being able to properly reason and make rational decisions based on proven facts.



********************************************
“A sword never kills anybody; it is a tool in the killer's hand.” Seneca the Younger

The police have no duty to respond. See Castle Rock v. Gonzales, 545 U.S. 748 (2005) or Warren v. District of Columbia[1] (444 A.2d. 1, D.C. Ct. of Ap. 1981)

Judge Lee wrote that “we cannot jettison our constitutional rights, even if the goal behind a law is laudable." 9th Circuit Court of Appeals

[www.youtube.com]
Options:  Reply • Quote
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