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Russian economy teetering, says The Telegraph
Posted by: pdq
Date: May 10, 2022 02:01PM
based on leaked internal documents, they say, which are more pessimistic than IMF projections.

Quote

The Russian finance ministry is predicting a 12pc collapse in GDP this year, the biggest contraction since 1994 when it was shifting towards capitalism under Boris Yeltsin, the first post-Soviet president.

A collapse would wipe out around a decade of economic growth.

…Russia’s central bank has repeatedly slashed interest rates in recent weeks after raising them at the onset of conflict.

The cuts, aimed at driving spending, came despite a surge in inflation to 17.7pc.

I’m a little leery of this kind of reporting, and I don’t know how trustworthy The Telegraph is. Putin has dodged default so far, but if we’ve come to an era where economic pressure can end wars, I think that’s a good thing.

PS- I read elsewhere that Russian state TV was hacked again, and this time it was on “Victory Day”. Yikes.
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Re: Russian economy teetering, says The Telegraph
Posted by: btfc
Date: May 10, 2022 02:07PM
‘ Putin is trapped in a quagmire and doesn’t know how to get out ‘

“ Russia has paid a fearsome price for meager gains. Kyiv claims that more than 25,000 Russian soldiers have been killed; that figure might be exaggerated but probably not by much. Open-source reporting confirms that Russia has lost more than 3,500 vehicles (including more than 600 tanks), 121 aircraft and nine naval vessels, including the flagship of the Black Sea fleet. Those are the worst losses Russia has suffered since World War II.
While Russia gets weaker, Ukraine gets stronger: It now has more tanks than at the start of the war, much better artillery and far more weapons systems of all kinds. Russian morale is poor, with officers reportedly disobeying orders; Ukrainian morale is sky-high.

The Russian economy hasn’t collapsed under sanctions, but it has taken a severe hit: The economy is forecast to shrink by as much as 10 percent this year, and inflation could reach 23 percent. The damage will only accelerate as Russian production lines are cut off from Western imports such as microchips.
Far from striking a blow against the West, Putin has united the West against him, and his actions have led to a surge of NATO military activity in Eastern Europe. If Finland and Sweden join the Atlantic alliance, as seems likely, that will bring even more NATO troops to Russia’s doorstep. “


[www.washingtonpost.com]
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Re: Russian economy teetering, says The Telegraph
Posted by: Speedy
Date: May 10, 2022 03:11PM
As long as the oil and gas keep flowing, Russia can hang in there.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Russian economy teetering, says The Telegraph
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: May 10, 2022 03:21PM
Economic reporting from The Telegraph is highly suspect. Their economic expert has been predicting the crash of the Chinese economy for the past 10 years.

I can believe, however, that as the Wash Post says, the Russkies are taking a big and worsening economic hit. Whether this has any impact on Putin is another story entirely.
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Re: Russian economy teetering, says The Telegraph
Posted by: RgrF
Date: May 10, 2022 03:26PM
The Telegraph is generally a right wing leaning organ. It would be nice if this were an indication that the western autocratic prone right was divorcing itself from the Russian autocratic right.
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Re: Russian economy teetering, says The Telegraph
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: May 10, 2022 05:08PM
Quote
Speedy
As long as the oil and gas keep flowing, Russia can hang in there.

I was going to post something similar.

The value of the Ruble rebounded from the hole it was in 8 weeks ago and is actually up from where it was 3 months ago. That has to change. A big drop in crude oil value would help. Even before the oil price implosion in 2020, US crude production was dropping. I think the oil companies (or some subset of actors) are using the Ukraine war as an excuse to drive up oil prices because they don't want Biden to get reelected.



In tha 360. MRF User Map



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/10/2022 05:09PM by Filliam H. Muffman.
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Re: Russian economy teetering, says The Telegraph
Posted by: Speedy
Date: May 10, 2022 06:00PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
an excuse to drive up oil prices because they don't want Biden to get reelected.

No @#$%&.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Russian economy teetering, says The Telegraph
Posted by: bfd
Date: May 10, 2022 06:14PM
Everyone's economy is teetering right now - not just Russia's… if anything triggers a worldwide conflagration, it's going to be that.
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Re: Russian economy teetering, says The Telegraph
Posted by: Bill in NC
Date: May 13, 2022 03:00PM
Quote
Filliam H. Muffman
Quote
Speedy
As long as the oil and gas keep flowing, Russia can hang in there.

I was going to post something similar.

The value of the Ruble rebounded from the hole it was in 8 weeks ago and is actually up from where it was 3 months ago. That has to change. A big drop in crude oil value would help. Even before the oil price implosion in 2020, US crude production was dropping. I think the oil companies (or some subset of actors) are using the Ukraine war as an excuse to drive up oil prices because they don't want Biden to get reelected.

The Russian ruble has become an internal currency, at least for the duration.

Whatever value the Russian government says it has only applies to those areas where they can force its use.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/13/2022 03:00PM by Bill in NC.
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