Not sure how SUSA trends, but this is the kind of lead we were seeing before:

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The survey showed Warnock with 48% support among likely voters in the Peach State, while Walker received 39% support; eight percent of respondents were undecided.

In the poll, nine-in-ten Democrats (90%) were lined up behind Warnock, while Walker earned the support of 77% of Republicans; 10% of Republican respondents crossed over to support Warnock over Walker in the survey.

Critically, Warnock has strong leads among respondents in both urban and suburban areas…

Rural areas like Walker. And Warnock didn’t crack 50%. Still, Warnock leads independents by 9% too. Not too shabby.

Same poll has Kemp and Abrams virtually tied:

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In the gubernatorial contest, incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp led Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams by a razor-thin 45%-44% margin; four percent of respondents indicated that they'll back another candidate while seven percent were undecided.

In the poll, Abrams held 92% of Democrats, while Kemp had the backing of 87% of Republicans.

That one is obviously gonna depend on turnout.

I told my friends the same thing, turnout will be the key.
I hope the Republicans are less enthusiastic about their slate and don’t turn out as much, and that Democrats and other independents are upset about Roe V Wade and other things enough to really get out the vote.

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Roswell, GA (Atlanta suburb)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/30/2022 05:13PM by rgG.

With a lead like that it’s hardly worth making the effort to vote.

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Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.

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Speedy
With a lead like that it’s hardly worth making the effort to vote.

And that's what can cost the Dems the elections in GA. My Repub friends are basically saying they're going to hold their nose and vote for Walker. My Dem friends are pleased with Warnock; none have said that they won't bother to vote since he's so far ahead. But, Dems have historically turned out at lower levels in the GA midterms.

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Michael
My Repub friends are basically saying they're going to hold their nose and vote for Walker.

That’s what they do. Most of my Republican friends would vote for the devil himself if he had an R by his name.

…with the possible exception of Trump. I would guess he’s lost maybe a third (?) of Republicans. Not that they would vote for a Democrat; they’d vote for some rando libertarian or stay home rather than do that.

Baby steps.

I know some Georgia Republicans who are voting for Warnock but not Abrams, who they view as too liberal. They are not MAGA.

Warnock is a respected leader in metro Atlanta and beyond, Walker is just embarrassing. I can guarantee that the Warnock campaign and supporters will not rest until that victory is declared.

It took Republicans crossing over to get Osoff and Warnock in the first place. There are very few "independents." As we've discussed before, most Americans identify with one party from a young age and rarely stray in their voting. Even when they tell pollsters they are "independent."



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/31/2022 09:10AM by Lemon Drop.

If Walker had kept his mouth shut and just struck Heisman poses, he would have likely won. But he has become such an unmitigated disaster that he lost the sane Republicans. That should be enough to give Warnock the win - IF the Democrats don't get lazy about voting.

As for Abrams, she'll be close again but Kemp will win. Those same Republican voters avoiding Walker will have no issue with Kemp. The Trump crowd will grudgingly vote for him because Abrams scares them.

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“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.” -- François de La Rochefoucauld

"Those who cannot accept the past are condemned to revise it." -- Geo. Mathias

The German word for contraceptive is “Schwangerschaftsverhütungsmittel”. By the time you finished saying that, it’s too late

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Ombligo
If Walker had kept his mouth shut and just struck Heisman poses, he would have likely won. But he has become such an unmitigated disaster that he lost the sane Republicans. That should be enough to give Warnock the win - IF the Democrats don't get lazy about voting.

As for Abrams, she'll be close again but Kemp will win. Those same Republican voters avoiding Walker will have no issue with Kemp. The Trump crowd will grudgingly vote for him because Abrams scares them.

I tend to agree with you.
Honestly, as much as I would like to have a Democratic Governor here, it is probably more important to keep the senate seat.
Stacy A is more polarizing than Warnock, so I think she will have a much harder time winning.
Maybe we will get lucky and both will win, but it will not be easy.

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Roswell, GA (Atlanta suburb)

I simultaneously understand and don't understand the problem people have with Abrams.

Maybe it's that I hear their complaints about her but think it's B.S.

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AllGold
I simultaneously understand and don't understand the problem people have with Abrams.

Maybe it's that I hear their complaints about her but think it's B.S.

Seems the problem people have have with Abrams is as black and white as can be, nothing nuanced about it.

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RgrF

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AllGold
I simultaneously understand and don't understand the problem people have with Abrams.

Maybe it's that I hear their complaints about her but think it's B.S.

Seems the problem people have have with Abrams is as black and white as can be, nothing nuanced about it.

I don’t think it is just that, as they are willing to vote for Walker, and he is black.
I think it is more of a strong woman thing, just like with Hillary.

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Roswell, GA (Atlanta suburb)

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rgG

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RgrF

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AllGold
I simultaneously understand and don't understand the problem people have with Abrams.

Maybe it's that I hear their complaints about her but think it's B.S.

Seems the problem people have have with Abrams is as black and white as can be, nothing nuanced about it.

I don’t think it is just that, as they are willing to vote for Walker, and he is black.
I think it is more of a strong woman thing, just like with Hillary.

Yes, I think that's it.

I always forget about the misogyny thing because I prefer positions of power to be held by women.

Walker is the epitome of Kookbiscuit.