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About those falling gas prices
Posted by: AllGold
Date: August 09, 2022 06:15PM
Demand for gasoline has fallen to levels of June 2020 (pandemic lockdown). Some sources say demand is actually below June 2020.

[gasprices.aaa.com].
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: gadje
Date: August 09, 2022 06:21PM
I did not check the link you posted but I find that hard to believe. Roads seem pretty busy. June 2020 was quiet around here.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: C(-)ris
Date: August 09, 2022 06:39PM
No way it down to pandemic levels. I worked through the entire pandemic and there was almost no one on the road. That is not the case right now.



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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: Speedy
Date: August 09, 2022 06:57PM
I guess I’m going to have to look at our local stations posted gas prices next time I drive my PHEV past one.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: Filliam H. Muffman
Date: August 09, 2022 07:12PM
Traffic is dependent on when/where people drive. If they are all on the road when you are at work or home, or take different roads, you don't see the traffic.

Gas sales and demand depend on average mileage of vehicles driven. People don't drive their 10 mpg 4WD pickups as much when prices are high.

Prices depend on demand, production, and if oil companies can make more money selling products offshore than domestically.



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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: N-OS X-tasy!
Date: August 09, 2022 07:27PM
Quote
C(-)ris
No way it down to pandemic levels. I worked through the entire pandemic and there was almost no one on the road. That is not the case right now.

This rings true.



It is what it is.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: August 09, 2022 07:39PM
Nope, not even close. It's actually slightly *higher* than pre pandemic
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: RAMd®d
Date: August 09, 2022 07:41PM
No way it down to pandemic levels.


I don't know this to be a fact, but it's certainly my experience.

Not working through the pandemic, my data points are fewer, but I was out and about frequently, and during rush hour traffic a lot, since there was none.

Not only was there no rush hour traffic, there was extremely little, and for several minutes at a time — none whatsoever.

Seriously, there were several times it felt like a scene from The Omega Man or other post apocalyptic film.

Now, my take is traffic is back to normal.

There is commute traffic and it's bad.

Color me dubious, but I find it difficult to accept that fuel demands are as low as claimed.

Though I do imagine that summer road trips have been/are fewer, but still...






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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: davemchine
Date: August 09, 2022 08:00PM
I've been making a lot of trips to Seattle lately and the roads are CLOGGED.



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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: Robert M
Date: August 10, 2022 07:29AM
All,

I'm with RAM and C(-)ris. There were _very_ few cars on the road during the worst of the pandemic and this was at times when there would be significant traffic. It felt like the apocalypse. Now? Although there are fewer cars than normal on the roads, it is not remotely close to what it was like during the pandemic. You're talking entirely different numbers of vehicles.

People are still driving their 10 mpg big honkin' vehicles. Why? Because that is the car they use and own for their regular day to day lives. A temporary upswing in gas prices isn't going to make them sell their vehicles in favor of a more efficient model and/or park their vehicles temporarily. If you need a big honkin' gas guzzler for work, you'll drive your big honkin' gas guzzler.

Robert
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: gabester
Date: August 10, 2022 08:20AM
I likewise am not buying the "prices down with demand" statement because the amount of traffic observed is nowhere near as minimal as the pandemic trough nor is it possible to sell sufficient EVs/HEVs in such a short time to significantly reduce demand, and we're not seeing that anyway.

I think prices are down because supply is up; seems to have something to do with a world leader fist bumping a murderous heir to the throne of an oil kingdom.



g=
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: Lux Interior
Date: August 10, 2022 08:46AM
Just drove from central VA to the Alabama coast.

The corridors were very busy for the most part.

Aside: saw regular for $3.15 at a Sam's near Chattanooga.

Was about $3.30-$3.40 at other stations.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: pdq
Date: August 10, 2022 09:09AM
Come on, people, if you doubt what someone is saying, check the source, which in this case is the EIA. Here’s US gasoline production:



This is “product supplied”, which EIA says “approximately represents consumption of petroleum products.”

So, to my eye, gasoline production (approximating consumption) is down from last year, but higher than in 2020. But it does look like the *latest* weekly estimate is down to around mid-2020 levels.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: Acer
Date: August 10, 2022 10:31AM
From the OP: "According to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), gas demand dropped from 9.25 million b/d to 8.54 million b/d last week. The rate is 1.24 million b/d lower than last year and is in line with the need at the end of July 2020, when COVID-19 restrictions were in place and fewer drivers hit the road."

The end of July 2020 was well after the lockdown that really emptied the roads, which was largely lifted by the end of May. However, a lot of people were still working from home or not making big travel plans, so I think the current decline in demand is notable. Fuel demand may be relatively inelastic, but there is room for some discretion.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 08/10/2022 10:34AM by Acer.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: August 10, 2022 10:44AM
Unless all of those cars are being fueled by unicorn farts, I don't see it as anywhere remotely close to two years ago. At least where I live, where mile long backups are not an uncommon occurrence.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: Speedy
Date: August 10, 2022 10:46AM
Quote
Acer
From the OP: "According to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), gas demand dropped from 9.25 million b/d to 8.54 million b/d last week. The rate is 1.24 million b/d lower than last year and is in line with the need at the end of July 2020, when COVID-19 restrictions were in place and fewer drivers hit the road."

The end of July 2020 was well after the lockdown that really emptied the roads, which was largely lifted by the end of May. However, a lot of people were still working from home or not making big travel plans, so I think the current decline in demand is notable. Fuel demand may be relatively inelastic, but there is room for some discretion.

This ^



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: pdq
Date: August 10, 2022 11:27AM
I’m just trying to look at the data. I get tired of the old farts I interact with just knowing things that aren’t true.

In somewhat related news, the CPI came in lower than expected. The headline number is 8.5%, to which one naturally responds, another 8.5%? Sheesh.

But that’s the year over year, which includes the previous inflation of the past 12 months. In fact, month over month, the CPI reported today was flat. Zero percent. Which is to say, overall prices stayed the same from June.

The market likes it, with all indices up 1.5 to 2.5% at present.

Part of the falloff of this month’s CPI was decreasing gas prices. Even when you strip those out, the “core” CPI was up only 0.3% from June, a pretty normal number.

Faux News will shout the 8.5% number, but it may be (just maybe) that the Fed has done the job here.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: AllGold
Date: August 10, 2022 01:22PM
Quote
pdq
I’m just trying to look at the data. I get tired of the old farts I interact with just knowing things that aren’t true.

Thanks, pdq. It wasn't my personal observation and it wasn't even my data. I posted because I thought it was surprising.

There was a lot of shooting the messenger going on here. wink smiley
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: August 10, 2022 01:43PM
I have a feeling that gasoline *sales* would be the correct metric here. Or highway data from any of the 50 states that has a Dept. of Transportation.

No offense intended to AllGold, though!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/10/2022 02:13PM by mrbigstuff.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: JoeH
Date: August 10, 2022 02:50PM
Many of the observations of traffic being "back to normal" sound like local travel. People may not be doing as much traveling outside their local area as in the past now. I know that traffic I see in town is almost back to "normal", but on a trip to back to my hometown at the end of July for a 90th birthday get together for my father I saw fewer vehicles on the road than I used to see for that time of day and day of the week.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: kj
Date: August 10, 2022 03:02PM
Part of being good data consumer is being skeptical, and I'm skeptical. The insurance companies also seemed to see a lot fewer miles put on cars during the pandemic, so maybe that's another source of data.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/10/2022 03:03PM by kj.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: pdq
Date: August 10, 2022 03:05PM
Quote
pdq

Faux News will shout the 8.5% number, but it may be (just maybe) that the Fed has done the job here.

Inflation climbed 8.5% in July as prices cool but remain near record high (headline at Faux Business)

Record high of what? Inflation? Not even close to the peak under St. Ronnie, which was less than post-WW2:



Gas prices? Down by something like a dollar a gallon last month.

Record high of….? They don’t actually say.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: pdq
Date: August 10, 2022 04:04PM
…or this headline, from Faux News:

White House blasted for claiming ‘zero’ inflation after latest CPI report: ‘Lying to everyone’
Conservative Twitter users were quick to point out inflation was still near record levels

As above: wasn’t “a record” before; not even close. Even less “near record” in this month’s report.

Also, when the CPI has a zero-percent-increase month-over-month, would it really be “lying to everyone” that for that one month, at least, there was zero inflation?
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: wurm
Date: August 12, 2022 05:13PM
As I wrote on July 5th..

"They" seem to have accomplished what they intended to. After weeks of being conditioned for and paying $5.xx per gallon of gas, today I found myself pleased at finding a station selling it for only $4.43/gal. What a sucker.

It's all about the conditioning. When you've been paying $5+ per gallon, $3.xx seems like a dream come true.
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Re: About those falling gas prices
Posted by: RgrF
Date: August 12, 2022 05:19PM
Still $5.65 here.
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