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Your Guess on Future Natural Gas Prices
Posted by: graylocks
Date: September 17, 2022 05:58PM
I started a post on the other side (OUCH! Natural Gas Company Renewal Time) but those non-political types are better at debating if one should have a gas stove rather than discussing geopolitics and speculating what will happen with natural gas prices in the next few years.

What say ye on this side of the street? Do you think natural gas prices will stabilize, rise, or fall in the next year or so given Putin and the war in Ukraine.



"Success isn't about how much money you make. It is about the difference you make in people's lives."--Michelle Obama
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Re: Your Guess on Future Natural Gas Prices
Posted by: Acer
Date: September 17, 2022 06:08PM
I think it will be a rough winter. Putin will likely continue his bluster at least that long, even if he ultimately backs down.
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Re: Your Guess on Future Natural Gas Prices
Posted by: graylocks
Date: September 17, 2022 06:10PM
Quote
Acer
I think it will be a rough winter. Putin will likely continue his bluster at least that long, even if he ultimately backs down.

how long would you speculate the pinch on natural gas prices might be in effect? my natural gas price per therm is doubling. i'm trying to decide if i should lock in the available prices for 12 or 24 months.



"Success isn't about how much money you make. It is about the difference you make in people's lives."--Michelle Obama
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Re: Your Guess on Future Natural Gas Prices
Posted by: Ted King
Date: September 17, 2022 06:34PM
A lot depends on how cold next winter is in places with a high demand for natural gas. For example, if Western Europe has a bitterly cold and prolonged winter the worldwide prices are likely to rise noticeably. If places like Western Europe have an unusually mild winter, then the upward pressure on natural gas prices will be much less.

Beyond next winter it gets even harder to guess, but a totally out of my ass guess is that the trend line on natural gas for the next couple of years is a rise of a few percent beyond inflation. (Lots of short term variation, though.)

Of course, if something dramatic like the war in Ukraine spirals out of control, then things like that can change the picture quite a bit.



e pluribus unum
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Re: Your Guess on Future Natural Gas Prices
Posted by: Speedy
Date: September 18, 2022 06:01AM
It can only go one way - up. But there are lots of long term contracts out there between suppliers and utilities so it could get interesting on the spot market. Texas hasn’t done anything to fix it’s problems because the suppliers loved the huge spike in pure gouging profits they made in 2020.



Saint Cloud, Minnesota, where the weather is wonderful even when it isn't.
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Re: Your Guess on Future Natural Gas Prices
Posted by: S. Pupp
Date: September 18, 2022 11:46AM
I was spending up to $200/mo on gas during winter in upstate NY 18 years ago.
I shudder to think what people will have to spend this winter.
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Re: Your Guess on Future Natural Gas Prices
Posted by: Bill in NC
Date: September 18, 2022 12:57PM
Quote
graylocks
Quote
Acer
I think it will be a rough winter. Putin will likely continue his bluster at least that long, even if he ultimately backs down.

how long would you speculate the pinch on natural gas prices might be in effect? my natural gas price per therm is doubling. i'm trying to decide if i should lock in the available prices for 12 or 24 months.

Over a decade ago I needed to replace my central AC/gas furnace HVAC in the spring following a major spike in natural gas prices...~$3/MMBtu to ~$15MMBtu on the wholesale market, retail price per therm doubled one month to the next.

So I switched to a heat pump w/ gas furnace backup...and then prices promptly fell back to ~$3/MMBtu.

I'd lock in your prices for two years plus add a solar heating system for your pool.
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