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Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: November 22, 2022 11:57AM
A poll released on Tuesday by AARP, an interest group for those aged 50 and older, found a significant age gap in voters’ preferences in the Georgia Senate runoff election between incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and former NFL player Herschel Walker (R).

Warnock leads Walker by 24 percentage points among voters aged 18-49, while Walker leads by 9 points among voters aged 50 or older, according to the poll from AARP Georgia. The two groups differ in their preferences by a total of 33 points.

Voters are more supportive of Walker the older they are, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points among respondents 50 and older.

Respondents aged 65 or older favor Walker over Warnock by 13 points, while that lead shrinks to 4 percentage points among those aged 50-64.

Black voters aged 50 and up differ in preference from their age group overall, however, with Warnock holding an 83-point lead over Walker among such respondents. The margin of error for that group was 4.9 percentage points.

Overall, Warnock leads in the poll of all age groups by 4 percentage points, despite voters aged 50 and older constituting more than 60 percent of likely runoff voters.

[thehill.com]



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.” -- François de La Rochefoucauld

"Those who cannot accept the past are condemned to revise it." -- Geo. Mathias
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Re: Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: GGD
Date: November 22, 2022 12:18PM
So Walker leads with voters more likely to have dementia, correct?
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Re: Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: Z
Date: November 22, 2022 12:21PM
Or at least more likely to watch FoxNews.
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Re: Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: November 22, 2022 12:26PM
Doesn't say who conducted the poll for the AARP. I'll pass on this one. I'd prefer a more substantial poll from a recognized source...not to say this is bogus.

It's just that I have my doubts when all of a sudden AARP goes to polling from trying to sell me insurance.
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Re: Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: November 22, 2022 12:36PM
Quote
Steve G.
Doesn't say who conducted the poll for the AARP. I'll pass on this one. I'd prefer a more substantial poll from a recognized source...not to say this is bogus.

It's just that I have my doubts when all of a sudden AARP goes to polling from trying to sell me insurance.

The survey was conducted by the bipartisan team of pollsters Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research on behalf of AARP. The firms interviewed 1,183 likely Georgia voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters, with an oversample of 550 likely voters age 50 and older and an additional oversample of 133 Black likely voters age 50 and older, between November 11-17, 2022. The interviews were conducted via landline, cellphone, and SMS-to-web. The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 860 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%; for the 400 total sample of Black voters 50+ is ±4.9%.



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.” -- François de La Rochefoucauld

"Those who cannot accept the past are condemned to revise it." -- Geo. Mathias
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Re: Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: November 22, 2022 12:46PM
It's a reliable poll, excellent methodology, and the first major public poll for this runoff race.

Whichever party gets their people to the polls is gonna win, it's a toss up. So that Saturday voting is hugely important for Democrats, and the Republicans trying to stop it certainly know that.

"The survey was conducted by the bipartisan team of pollsters Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research on behalf of AARP. The firms interviewed 1,183 likely Georgia voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 500 likely voters, with an oversample of 550 likely voters age 50 and older and an additional oversample of 133 Black likely voters age 50 and older, between November 11-17, 2022. The interviews were conducted via landline, cellphone, and SMS-to-web. The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 860 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%; for the 400 total sample of Black voters 50+ is ±4.9%.   For more information on how, when and where to vote in Georgia, visit aarp.org/GAvotes. "

[states.aarp.org]

 
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Re: Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: hal
Date: November 22, 2022 01:12PM
A while ago I saw an article about polling in the modern age and it had an image of a LONG matrix of black dots - maybe 8 across that scrolled and scrolled until the end where there was one green dot.

The article said that the green dot represents the # of people that decide to accept the polling questions. The others do not.

It has really shattered any remaining respect for poll numbers I might have had...
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Re: Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: DavidS
Date: November 22, 2022 01:12PM
Well, my wife and I are both GA voters older than 50 and no one called us. We will be both voting for Warnock, as will my 19yo son.

The Saturday voting thing is interesting. There is a law that says you cannot do Saturday voting if 1-2 days after a holiday. I guess that is for the poll workers who may be out of town.

My son is home from college for Thanksgiving. He did sign up for an absentee ballot but will probably go vote in person on Saturday instead. There is a polling location less than a mile from us.
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Re: Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: RgrF
Date: November 22, 2022 01:22PM
Quote
hal
A while ago I saw an article about polling in the modern age and it had an image of a LONG matrix of black dots - maybe 8 across that scrolled and scrolled until the end where there was one green dot.

The article said that the green dot represents the # of people that decide to accept the polling questions. The others do not.

It has really shattered any remaining respect for poll numbers I might have had...

Agreed.

The ubiquity of cell service has pretty much torpedoed phone surveys. I mean who answers unknown numbers? No matter how hard they try they haven't found a way to weight that issue so it's a hard time to be a professional pollster.
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Re: Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: November 22, 2022 01:43PM
the scary part of that poll is the percentage at which the older voters vote, versus the younger cohort. oy.
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Re: Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: rgG
Date: November 22, 2022 04:40PM
Quote
DavidS
Well, my wife and I are both GA voters older than 50 and no one called us. We will be both voting for Warnock, as will my 19yo son.

The Saturday voting thing is interesting. There is a law that says you cannot do Saturday voting if 1-2 days after a holiday. I guess that is for the poll workers who may be out of town.

My son is home from college for Thanksgiving. He did sign up for an absentee ballot but will probably go vote in person on Saturday instead. There is a polling location less than a mile from us.

Another over 50 GA outlier here, too, and I know four others who will be voting for Warnock. I may vote this Sunday, when, hopefully, most other voters in my area will be in church. grinning smiley





Roswell, GA (Atlanta suburb)
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Re: Walker/Warnock Poll
Posted by: AllGold
Date: November 22, 2022 09:23PM
Before the Nov. election, I saw something on TV where they were interviewing some likely voters on the Warnock/Walker race.

An old woman they asked said "I think Herschel Walker has the best interests of Georgia in mind."

I couldn't help myself from yelling at the TV, "censored smiley, what are you talking about--he doesn't even live in Georgia!"
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