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Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: pdq
Date: November 30, 2022 11:54AM
…and then what?

Quote

If Republicans win the last two uncalled House races, McCarthy's Republicans will have a 222-213 majority in the House. "That means McCarthy can suffer only four Republican defections in the speaker vote scheduled for Jan. 3," and five House Republicans have said they are hard no's, Ting adds. "If all five remain steadfast in voting against McCarthy, he's toast."

…and it seems to be getting worse:

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The problem for McCarthy is that "a growing list of House Republicans is threatening to not vote for him," Politico reports. One definite "no," Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), said Monday he counts roughly 20 "pretty hard no's" in the GOP caucus. enough to "prevent Kevin from getting the speakership."

Things can change of course; Republicans fall in line, after all. But the real wingnuts want McCarthy to be even wingnuttier:

Quote

…the Freedom Caucus — the font of resistance to McCarthy — has several demands. McCarthy "must balance the appearance of acquiescing to some conservative demands while also ensuring that whatever ground he gives doesn't undercut him if he does become speaker,"

Uh…say what now?

Anyway, there is one interesting “what if”:

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The threat of Democrats and moderate Republicans banding together to pick a speaker is one reason prominent hardliner Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is sticking with McCarthy — she floated the idea they [ie Dems + 5 moderate R’s] would pick outgoing Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) for the position.

It would be Cheney’s worst curse, of course. But who knows?

popcorn smiley
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Steve G.
Date: November 30, 2022 12:11PM
Nancy's not doing anything nowadays. A bunch of QNut nay votes and some sharp deal-making and Dems could put her in control. After all, she DOES get things done, which is more than you can say for McCarthy.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: gadje
Date: November 30, 2022 12:23PM
I am confused. I thought Rep. Liz Cheney lost the primaries and she was not able to run for a seat again. I thought her term will end in Jan 2023.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: JoeH
Date: November 30, 2022 12:40PM
Quote
gadje
I am confused. I thought Rep. Liz Cheney lost the primaries and she was not able to run for a seat again. I thought her term will end in Jan 2023.

There is no requirement in the Constitution that the Speaker of the House be a member. By tradition and practice all have been incumbent members of the House, but there is nothing preventing a non-member from being voted in.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: gadje
Date: November 30, 2022 01:04PM
Interesting.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: timg
Date: November 30, 2022 01:12PM
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JoeH
Quote
gadje
I am confused. I thought Rep. Liz Cheney lost the primaries and she was not able to run for a seat again. I thought her term will end in Jan 2023.

There is no requirement in the Constitution that the Speaker of the House be a member. By tradition and practice all have been incumbent members of the House, but there is nothing preventing a non-member from being voted in.

That was one of the nutjob scenarios a while ago where the republicans take control of the house, elect Trump speaker, then impeach Biden and Harris and Trump is President again ...



Skill without imagination is craftsmanship. Imagination without skill is Modern Art.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: gadje
Date: November 30, 2022 01:27PM
But they don’t have the Senate.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Lux Interior
Date: November 30, 2022 01:51PM
Quote
gadje
But they don’t have the Senate.


Uhhh...you were expecting their plan to actually make sense?
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: gabester
Date: November 30, 2022 02:12PM
I'd expect the existing GQP plan of obstruction is simply prevent the election of a speaker.

What happens then? I presume no legislation can get passed. They won't get their investigations (or they'll hold them anyway along partisan lines.)

I wonder how many soon-to-be-sitting Republican representatives might be caught up in the seditious conspiracy?



g=
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Ted King
Date: November 30, 2022 02:22PM
I think there's still a good chance after a whole big mess that enough Republicans will decide that they have to settle for McCarthy because no one else will come close to getting sufficient votes. I really like the idea of moderate Republicans voting with Democrats to choose the next Speaker but it ain't goin' ta happen.



e pluribus unum
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: N-OS X-tasy!
Date: November 30, 2022 02:26PM
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JoeH
Quote
gadje
I am confused. I thought Rep. Liz Cheney lost the primaries and she was not able to run for a seat again. I thought her term will end in Jan 2023.

There is no requirement in the Constitution that the Speaker of the House be a member. By tradition and practice all have been incumbent members of the House, but there is nothing preventing a non-member from being voted in.

Yeaaahhh... we don't need to be establishing those sorts of precedents, thank you very much.



It is what it is.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: AllGold
Date: November 30, 2022 02:57PM
I think it would be perfect karma if McCarthy were to never become Speaker. Most every @#$%& thing he has done is in his quest to become Speaker. Plus, he has repeatedly shown he is just not up to the job.

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Lux Interior
Quote
gadje
But they don’t have the Senate.


Uhhh...you were expecting their plan to actually make sense?

smiley-laughing001
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Don C
Date: November 30, 2022 03:34PM
So if there is no speaker, do they all just go home? What
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: November 30, 2022 04:16PM
Quote
timg
Quote
JoeH
Quote
gadje
I am confused. I thought Rep. Liz Cheney lost the primaries and she was not able to run for a seat again. I thought her term will end in Jan 2023.

There is no requirement in the Constitution that the Speaker of the House be a member. By tradition and practice all have been incumbent members of the House, but there is nothing preventing a non-member from being voted in.

That was one of the nutjob scenarios a while ago where the republicans take control of the house, elect Trump speaker, then impeach Biden and Harris and Trump is President again ...

That was when the whole Red Tidal Wave was their plan.



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.” -- François de La Rochefoucauld

"Those who cannot accept the past are condemned to revise it." -- Geo. Mathias

The German word for contraceptive is “Schwangerschaftsverhütungsmittel”. By the time you finished saying that, it’s too late
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Janit
Date: November 30, 2022 04:16PM
Quote
Don C
So if there is no speaker, do they all just go home? What

I wonder, does Nancy Pelosi stay in the position until someone is elected to replace her?
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Ca Bob
Date: November 30, 2022 06:30PM
I would imagine the House just keeps taking votes until there is a Speaker. I would imagine that by the third vote, the Republicans would caucus once again and agree to vote unanimously for somebody, whoever it will turn out to be. Would love to see McCarthy left out, but the replacement will likely be worse.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: mrbigstuff
Date: November 30, 2022 07:32PM
Quote
gadje
But they don’t have the Senate.

Many scenarios had the Ds losing both houses of Congress.



Hurts like a bastid...
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: November 30, 2022 07:41PM
There is a simple way for McCarthy's opponents to say they opposed him, while also allowing him to win.

They can vote "present," or just not show up for the vote. In that case, they don't count as part of the 435, so the number of votes needed to win decreases

This is what Rep. Ralph Norman says he plans to do.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Acer
Date: November 30, 2022 07:57PM
Quote
Lemon Drop
There is a simple way for McCarthy's opponents to say they opposed him, while also allowing him to win.

They can vote "present," or just not show up for the vote. In that case, they don't count as part of the 435, so the number of votes needed to win decreases

This is what Rep. Ralph Norman says he plans to do.

Brave, brave Sir Robin.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: November 30, 2022 08:15PM
Quote
Lemon Drop
There is a simple way for McCarthy's opponents to say they opposed him, while also allowing him to win.

They can vote "present," or just not show up for the vote. In that case, they don't count as part of the 435, so the number of votes needed to win decreases

This is what Rep. Ralph Norman says he plans to do.

but if more than few do, then the Dems would have the majority during the session.



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.” -- François de La Rochefoucauld

"Those who cannot accept the past are condemned to revise it." -- Geo. Mathias

The German word for contraceptive is “Schwangerschaftsverhütungsmittel”. By the time you finished saying that, it’s too late
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: November 30, 2022 08:26PM
Quote
Ombligo
Quote
Lemon Drop
There is a simple way for McCarthy's opponents to say they opposed him, while also allowing him to win.

They can vote "present," or just not show up for the vote. In that case, they don't count as part of the 435, so the number of votes needed to win decreases

This is what Rep. Ralph Norman says he plans to do.

but if more than few do, then the Dems would have the majority during the session.

No, it wouldn't reduce the total number of Republicans in Congress. They have won the majority .

Only impacts this specific vote.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Fritz
Date: November 30, 2022 08:33PM
wouldn't be surprised if McC doesn't get it.
really feel Mitch is trying to gather the troops to behave more centrist before '24. That is def not McC. But dunno who.

If the dems run a younger experienced intelligent woman with a younger experienced intelligent man, they might be giants.
Maybe Whitmer or Raimondo, if they fit.



!#$@@$#!

What if the hokey pokey really is what it’s all about?

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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Ombligo
Date: December 01, 2022 07:02AM
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
Ombligo
Quote
Lemon Drop
There is a simple way for McCarthy's opponents to say they opposed him, while also allowing him to win.

They can vote "present," or just not show up for the vote. In that case, they don't count as part of the 435, so the number of votes needed to win decreases

This is what Rep. Ralph Norman says he plans to do.

but if more than few do, then the Dems would have the majority during the session.

No, it wouldn't reduce the total number of Republicans in Congress. They have won the majority .

Only impacts this specific vote.

Which is what I meant. If the Dems have the majority voting because half a dozen Republicans fail to show, then they can elect the speaker of their choice (who can then be removed and replaced later when the GOP stops infighting).



“No persons are more frequently wrong, than those who will not admit they are wrong.” -- François de La Rochefoucauld

"Those who cannot accept the past are condemned to revise it." -- Geo. Mathias

The German word for contraceptive is “Schwangerschaftsverhütungsmittel”. By the time you finished saying that, it’s too late
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Ted King
Date: December 01, 2022 07:10AM
Quote
Lemon Drop
Quote
Ombligo
Quote
Lemon Drop
There is a simple way for McCarthy's opponents to say they opposed him, while also allowing him to win.

They can vote "present," or just not show up for the vote. In that case, they don't count as part of the 435, so the number of votes needed to win decreases

This is what Rep. Ralph Norman says he plans to do.

but if more than few do, then the Dems would have the majority during the session.

No, it wouldn't reduce the total number of Republicans in Congress. They have won the majority .

Only impacts this specific vote.

I think what Ombligo says is theoretically correct. For every two members that are absent or voting "present" the magic number for a majority of members not absent or voting "present" goes down by one. IOW, if there are two members in total in the House absent or voting "present" then winning the Speakership would only require 217 votes rather than 218. The Democrats have 213 members in the House so if all of them were to vote for the same person for Speaker, it would require 10 Republican members to be absent or voting "present' for those 213 Democratic votes to be sufficient.

If the Republicans are stupid enough, they may not be counting the votes and somehow 10 Republicans are absent or vote "present" then the Democrats could elect one of theirs as Speaker if they are all present and all vote for that person. It just seems extremely unlikely that the Republican leadership wouldn't stop it before it got to that point - if that point even gets approached, which seems very doubtful to me. The least votes it has ever taken to elect a Speaker is 215 (in 1925).

It wouldn't surprise me at all, though, that there may need to be multiple votes before the Republicans settle on someone because I think there will be some Republican representatives that will vote for someone like Gosar rather than be absent or vote "present". Enough of those kinds of votes (not absent or "present" but voting for someone other than who most Republicans are voting for) could keep a Republican from getting voted Speaker but would not help the Democrats get one of theirs elected.


Oops, later edit: I just realized Lemon Drop was responding to this comment by Ombligo, "Dems would have the majority during the session." In Congress a "session" is one year so I realize now that that is what she was referring to. Sorry. I hope people don't mind me leaving the rest of the post even though I realize my error now.



e pluribus unum



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 12/01/2022 07:44AM by Ted King.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: pdq
Date: December 01, 2022 08:29AM
No, keep the post as is, Ted. Useful and interesting info, as usual.

In any case, the R’s are gonna have to scramble to avoid a real @#$%& -show.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Acer
Date: December 01, 2022 08:54AM
After some perfunctory drama to make it look like they are actually trying, they'll give it to McCarthy. He'll have Learned His LessonTM*.

*Trademarked by Senator Susan Collins, used in the House by permission.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: Lemon Drop
Date: December 01, 2022 09:41AM
Quote
Acer
After some perfunctory drama to make it look like they are actually trying, they'll give it to McCarthy. He'll have Learned His LessonTM*.

*Trademarked by Senator Susan Collins, used in the House by permission.

Exactly.
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Re: Looking like McCarthy won’t have the votes for Speaker
Posted by: pdq
Date: December 01, 2022 08:01PM
I’m not sure.

I saw a headline this afternoon that McCarthy “warned” the uber-nutjobs not to oppose him.

I doubt they’ll take to that well. Black may be white in their world, and up is down, but they’re true believers.
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