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Northern California Coast

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Staunton, Virginia

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Bernie

AAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaagh!!!

Seriously, this is going to be so terrible. I've already said it, but I think we will see the United States version of the Great Famine in China caused by their Great Leap Forward.

No one will be safe, well, except maybe those "high value males" of Elon's ilk who have successfully assembled their own private armies to protect themselves.

Think about these things:

(1) The mass deportations - which will necessarily look like concentration camps - will lead to dramatic labor undersupply for the kinds of jobs no US citizen wants to work; not only a dramatic reduction in service sector labor for restaurants, the remaining physical shops, landscaping services, but especially in the agriculture sector. Food will become scarce; luxury services like dining out scarcer. Scarcity drives cost increases - the simple economics of demand outstripping supply causing prices to rise.

(2) Tariffs will drive cost increases across all physical goods categories - spiking prices further - when you can get the goods to begin with.

(3) Allowing China to take over Taiwan means ALL the electronics will become unavailable (or at least at 10x previous price). Do these nutsos think that domestic manufacturing can be created overnight - (that's how long a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would take)? The CHIPS-funded plants construction times are measuring in fractional decades. So any goods using electronics will become scarce. There goes your startup sector - the driver job growth - which was already hurting because of high interest rates.

(4) Massive reductions in the Federal budget will eliminate effectively all discretionary spending, further depressing economic growth.

(5) The interest rate cuts from a codependent Fed to stimulate the crashing economy will spur already burgeoning inflation, likely to hyperinflation levels. Cash will be worthless. Crypto prices will likely reach all time highs but will prove useless as high tech infrastructure quickly crumbles without access to replacement parts.

(6) With very limited aid in funds, food, and stockpiled goods (FEMA, other emergency supplies) only the most Trump loyal areas will get any help whatsoever, and what help there is will be filtered through layers of Christokryptokleptokakistofascist hands first... 320 million people (population minus the deported) will be on their own to fend for their own survival.

Might be a good time to become Amish, if only that were an option.

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gabester
AAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaagh!!!

(6) With very limited aid in funds, food, and stockpiled goods (FEMA, other emergency supplies) only the most Trump loyal areas will get any help whatsoever, and what help there is will be filtered through layers of Christokryptokleptokakistofascist hands first... 320 million people (population minus the deported) will be on their own to fend for their own survival.

Might be a good time to become Amish, if only that were an option.

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Staunton, Virginia

lol.

FEMA only avoided people trying to kill them.

I honestly don't understand how he's going to do what he said he'd do - although it might be a ton of posturing and very little actual action.

Mass removal of migrants - food will get more expensive

Mass tariffs - most everything will get more expensive.

He'd be creating the exact problems that sunk the previous administration.

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mattkime
He'd be creating the exact problems that sunk the previous administration.

I think you missed the part about how
(1) He shouldn't have left the White House last time.
(2) Supreme Court has given him cover for any and all illegal actions.
(3) Even if SCOTUS deems a convicted felon President's actions illegal, who will enforce it?
(4) He will not have to acknowledge future elections that go against him AND will continue to use all the tools that lead him to win this time to further consolidate power by high status males who show sufficient fealty to him.
(5) He will be a dictator on day one, why will it stop after that?

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!#$@@$#!

Nolite manducare flavo.

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gabester

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mattkime
He'd be creating the exact problems that sunk the previous administration.

I think you missed the part about how
(1) He shouldn't have left the White House last time.
(2) Supreme Court has given him cover for any and all illegal actions.
(3) Even if SCOTUS deems a convicted felon President's actions illegal, who will enforce it?
(4) He will not have to acknowledge future elections that go against him AND will continue to use all the tools that lead him to win this time to further consolidate power by high status males who show sufficient fealty to him.
(5) He will be a dictator on day one, why will it stop after that?

Right, but the price of eggs will go up

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mattkime
Right, but the price of eggs will go up

The price of eggs is largely dependent on the recentness with which the egg stock chickens have had to be culled for bird flu.

But everything thinks THAT is about inflation. Good news, I suppose, under Trump 2, there won't be an FDA or Dept of Agriculture to indicate those bird flu chickens ought to be culled, which should keep the price lower... at least until the bird flu kills the chickens.

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Y'all need to take my proposed Fargo woodchipper solution way more seriously now......



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The New York Times had an article this morning on what is likely to happen, what's unlikely to happen and what is a maybe. I'll post it below.

For myself I made a list of the things Trump has talked about doing and then noted wether I agreed or didn't agree. It helped me to realize that not ALL changes will be bad for me. It also helped me to understand what things I would like to respectfully oppose.

It's not my intention to minimize or to say bad things aren't going to happen. I gave up my crystal ball a long time ago. We will see.

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The likely changes
Donald Trump, his back to the camera, is gesturing with his right hand while standing along the southern border wall. He is talking to a man who is facing him and gesturing in the opposite direction.
Donald Trump at the southern border in August. Doug Mills/The New York Times
There are four areas in which a Republican Congress is most likely to make policy changes. For three of them, the party seems mostly united, and legislation does not necessarily have to overcome a filibuster in the Senate. (Some budget bills can pass with a simple majority.) For the last — aid to Ukraine — enough Republicans oppose a bill to keep it from becoming law.

1. Tax cuts: The signature legislation Trump signed in his first term was a 2017 law that cut taxes for almost all Americans, but especially the wealthy and corporations. Many of those cuts expire next year, and a Republican Congress is almost certain to extend most of them.

The biggest question is whether Congress will cut taxes even more, as Trump has said he favors (on tips, for example). That would make an already expensive tax bill even more costly — and lawmakers who are worried about the federal debt, including some Republicans, might oppose it.

2. Immigration: Nothing animated Trump on the campaign trail like immigration. He has promised mass deportations, which he could start by himself with executive action. But fully executing his plans will require money from Congress — for example, to hire border agents and build more of the wall.

Bigger changes to the immigration system would require bipartisan support to overcome a filibuster. Democrats have backed stricter entry rules before, but they might refuse to work with Trump on his signature issue. Some of Trump’s wealthy supporters have also pushed him to allow more legal immigration, but it’s unclear if Congress would agree.

3. Energy and climate: Congressional Republicans will probably reduce clean-energy funding, and Trump can unilaterally permit more oil and gas drilling and cut environmental regulations. Those moves will likely worsen climate change, but Republicans hope they will reduce energy costs.

There may also be opportunities for bipartisan legislating. Lawmakers from both parties want to streamline the permitting process, which could help oil, gas and clean energy projects move forward.

4. Ukraine: Trump and many congressional Republicans are skeptical about providing more aid for Ukraine’s defense against Russia. The aid approved earlier this year will probably run out sometime in 2025, at which point Ukraine’s struggles on the battlefield will grow.

The maybes
An aerial photo of several rows of stacked container boxes at a port.
Shipping containers in Baltimore. Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA, via Shutterstock
At least three other parts of Trump’s agenda are more uncertain. Either Republicans are more divided on the issue or the change would require 60 Senate votes to overcome a filibuster. (Republicans are likely to have only 52 or 53.)

1. Tariffs: Trump campaigned on large tariffs — effectively sales taxes on foreign goods — to resurrect American manufacturing and to raise revenue. But some Republicans and business leaders are opposed. Tariffs historically mean higher prices, and they could lead other countries to retaliate with their own penalties on American products. Trump could try to impose tariffs unilaterally, but such a move would be vulnerable to legal challenges.

2. The safety net: Republicans have suggested they will balance budgets by cutting some government spending. They might let Obamacare health insurance subsidies expire next year, which would increase the number of uninsured people. Republicans also appear poised to slash Medicaid, food stamps and other programs that help poor and disabled Americans.

3. Voter ID: Republicans want to pass legislation requiring ID to register and vote, but they will need some Democratic support to pass it in the Senate. Republicans falsely claim that Democrats register undocumented immigrants and that elections are rigged. Still, such a law wouldn’t be unusual for a democracy; many other countries require ID.

(What about abortion? Republicans seem unlikely to pass nationwide abortion restrictions. Trump has distanced himself from a potential ban, and passing one would require eliminating the filibuster.)

Potential opposition
Democrats’ best hope for slowing this agenda involves public opinion. Some parts of the Republican agenda, like cuts to the safety net, are unpopular. Public protests could lead to their demise, as happened with efforts to repeal Obamacare in Trump’s first term.

Republicans also have their own disagreements, particularly between the old guard and the MAGA wing. The MAGA wing is more favorable to tariffs, immigration restrictions and cutting off aid to Ukraine. The old guard includes business-friendly Republicans who are more committed to free trade, more legal immigration and a foreign policy that stands up to Russia. With few votes to lose and higher stakes, the infighting could get worse, said our colleague Catie Edmondson, who covers Congress.

Ultimately, Republicans’ ability to realize their agenda may rest on how well they get along.

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Ukulele music I couldn't find anywhere else.
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